1-hour level key decision point, my script is clear
I just reviewed this BTC 1-hour chart, several core signals are here:
1 Technical aspect: BOLL band shows a clear downward opening, price is suppressed by the middle band; MACD is below the zero line with green bars expanding, which is a typical bearish acceleration structure. Short-term support is seen around the lower band at 86800, but if it breaks, the 1-hour level will head straight to the 85500-86000 area.
2 On-chain data: Combined with on-chain monitoring, over 25,000 BTC have flowed from miner wallets to exchanges in the past 24 hours, which is a clear potential selling pressure signal. But note, there are multiple whale addresses placing buy orders in the 86000-86500 range, indicating that large funds have defensive intentions at this position.
3 News aspect: Last night the US SEC postponed the Bitcoin ETF options decision, short-term sentiment is bearish, but if next week's CPI data exceeds expectations and slows down, it may reignite a macro rebound—bullish and bearish catalysts are building up.
My view:
Currently, it is a bearish-dominated choppy downward channel. As long as the price remains below 87500 (BOLL middle band), the 1-hour strategy will mainly focus on shorting on rebounds. However, if there are large withdrawals (over 10,000 BTC cumulatively) from whales on-chain, or if a sudden institutional-level positive announcement occurs, I will promptly indicate a reversal opportunity to go long during the live broadcast.
There is no 100% certainty in the crypto circle, but top traders must seize the risk-reward ratio in probabilities. Right now, the highest risk-reward ratio is to operate along the 1-hour bearish trend while keeping some bullets for a counterattack at key support levels. Keep a close eye on the two positions I marked, 86800 and 85500; the change won't remain silent for long.
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