Family, who understands this! The Federal Reserve's interest rate expectation data directly hit the market with a 'backstab'—the probability of a rate hike in January plummeted from 28.8% to 13.3%! Logically, this should be good news, but the crypto circle instead shows a sense of despair, with BTC and ETH experiencing slight drops. This unusual operation hides big secrets, let me break it down for you!
First, let me provide some valuable insights for newcomers: a decrease in the probability of rate hikes does not mean easing, but rather confirms that the script of a 'prolonged high-interest battle' is real! Previously, many people bet that January would signal easing, but now that this data has come out, it effectively announces that 'short-term liquidity should not expect to be loosened.' I often say 'liquidity is the lifeblood of the crypto market,' especially for coins sensitive to funding like ETH and XRP, short-term pressure is a high-probability event—after all, the cost of funds is high, and the main players won't easily enter the market to lift prices, volatility will only become more extreme, and retail investors chasing highs and cutting losses are likely to be repeatedly harvested.
Interestingly, former White House economic advisor Hassett's 'bombshell' stated that the Fed's interest rate cuts are 'seriously overdue,' and if it drags on, it will hurt the economy and the market. This creates an awkward contradiction: on one hand, the Fed stubbornly holds onto high interest rates without daring to act, while on the other hand, experts warn that 'if they don't cut soon, it will be too late.' Personally, I believe this contradiction is both a risk and an opportunity—the current panic in the crypto market is essentially a 'confusion of expectations,' and when consensus completely breaks down, it might actually lead to a temporary bottom.
Lastly, I will give you two signals that I have been monitoring, take notes! One is whether economic data cools down quickly; once the employment and inflation data collapse, the Fed will have to relent no matter how tough they are. The second is whether market panic reaches a critical point, for example, if BTC breaks a key support level but trading volume does not expand, it might indicate that the emotional release has been achieved. Additionally, recently in a low Gas environment, small coins related to Musk's concepts have shown some movements; these types of assets have clean chips and high pullback elasticity, but the risks are also extremely high. Newbies should not rush blindly; if you want to learn ambush techniques, you can follow me, and I will specifically release a guide to avoid pitfalls in the future!
The current market is like 'the darkness before dawn'; if we endure, spring will come, but most people will fall in the dark. Follow me for the most straightforward market judgments every day, help you avoid pitfalls, find the right rhythm, and when the next trend starts, don't let yourself miss out! Follow me @链上标哥 so you won't get lost!
