At the end of 2025, the gold market will explode. International gold prices will break through $4400 per ounce, with an annual increase of nearly 70%, marking the strongest surge in 45 years; silver will simultaneously rise to $69 per ounce, and platinum will surpass the $2000 mark, causing the precious metals market to boil over. This historic market movement is not coincidental, but rather the result of the resonance of three nuclear-level factors.

Three engines driving gold prices

1. Central bank 'gold hoarding' out of control

Global central banks' anxiety over the dollar's credit has reached a critical point. Emerging market central banks are accumulating gold at a pace of nearly 50 tons per month, with countries like China and Russia continuously diversifying their reserves into gold, as it is the 'only truly safe asset.' Goldman Sachs points out that this structural purchasing trend may continue for three years, completely draining market liquidity.

2. Geopolitical risks skyrocket

With ongoing uncertainties such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, risk aversion continues to rise. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has become the preferred 'safe harbor' for capital.

3. Rate cut expectations fuel the fire

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates multiple times in 2025, and the market bets that easing will continue in 2026. The weakening of U.S. Treasury yields directly enhances the attractiveness of non-interest-bearing assets like gold. Goldman Sachs predicts that if the Fed cuts rates by another 75 basis points, gold ETFs will see a massive inflow of funds.

Underlying logic: Sovereign currency trust crisis

This round of rising prices is not only about safe-haven assets, but also a reshaping of the global monetary system. With real interest rates high and gold prices soaring, traditional pricing logic has been broken, reflecting deep-seated anxiety about the dollar's credit. Gold's 'de-dollarization' attribute has become a core support, while rigid supply (growth in gold production has dropped to 0.5%) further enhances its long-term value.

Future outlook: Can gold continue to reign?

Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 gold price target to $4900 per ounce and warned that 'the upside risk is greater.' In the short term, rate cut expectations and central bank gold purchases will continue to support gold prices; however, caution is needed for potential pullbacks that could be triggered by the collapse of AI technology bubbles or rebounds in inflation data.

Gold vs Bitcoin: Who is the ultimate store of value?

Although Bitcoin is referred to as 'digital gold,' data shows that the correlation between the two is less than 0.2. Gold relies on central bank endorsement and physical scarcity, while Bitcoin relies on on-chain mechanisms and institutional allocation. Behind the historic surge, will capital migrate towards digital native assets? The answer may lie in the differences in risk structures: gold is a 'shield against collapse,' while Bitcoin is a 'spear for offense and defense.'

Conclusion

This carnival is far from over, but increased volatility has become a certainty. Investors need to remember: the long-term logic of gold is its monetary property, not short-term speculation. Don't forget, behind the $4900 target is Goldman Sachs’ calm reminder — 'the upside risk is greater.'#比特币与黄金战争 #比特币VS代币化黄金