Strictly adhering to discipline is the weapon to navigate through bull and bear markets.
'Another big player has blown up, I heard they lost eight figures this time!' When I came across this news, I was sipping coffee, but my heart was completely unfazed. It’s not that I’m heartless, but after seven years of ups and downs in the crypto circle, I’ve long become accustomed to such stories.
Looking at that push notification, I seemed to see myself seven years ago: squatting in a cramped rented room, staring at the green K-lines on the screen, holding a cup of instant noodles that had gone cold. At that time, I rushed into the crypto market with savings I had accumulated from three years of working, believing the 'big shots' and chasing every hot trend, only to see three accounts go to zero within six months. At my worst, I had to rummage through my pockets for change just to buy a pack of cigarettes.
Now, I am still in this circle, but I am no longer that vulnerable leek. The crypto market is never short of opportunities; what it lacks are people who can survive to see tomorrow. According to Bloomberg data, new investors face a loss rate of up to 79% in their first year, while those who strictly adhere to risk control rules can increase their survival rate from 19% to 68% over three years.
Today, I want to share six life-saving rules that I have earned with real money, hoping to help you avoid detours.
Rule One: Follow the 'flow of money,' not the 'flow of words.'
In the early days, I was like a headless fly, jumping into any group that had 'insider information'. The result is predictable; those influencers shouting 'it will increase tenfold' are mostly promoting for money. Research shows that 68% of popular cryptocurrencies on Twitter are halved within a month.
Now, I have completely changed my mindset: I no longer look at any slogans, only at the flow of funds. Assets that can stand firm on the increase list for half a month must have real money pushing them. Before making any decisions, I will test the project with three questions: What problem does the technology solve? How is the token economic model? Is the team background reliable? This is what is known as the '3T principle'.
Remember, the market is always right, and those 'big shots' are likely just actors.
Rule Two: The monthly chart determines the trend; don’t release the hawk until you see the rabbit.
The most common mistake for newcomers is to bottom-fish against the trend. I once kept adding positions during a downturn, only to get deeper and deeper into a hole. It wasn't until I witnessed LUNA go to zero in a matter of days that I fully understood: the trend is your friend, and going against it is suicide.
Now I strictly follow one rule: only consider entering the market when there are clear stabilization signals on the monthly chart. Those coins that seem 'cheap' often have even cheaper times ahead. The market is like a pendulum; once a trend is formed, it won't easily change. Waiting for clear trend signals is wiser than blindly bottom-fishing.
Rule Three: The 60-day line is a lifeline; staying away from it is gambling with your life.
The most practical advice I give to all newcomers is to engrave the 60-day moving average line in their minds. This line is the cost line for the main players and the safety line for retail investors. When the price is far from the 60-day line, it means the risk of a pullback increases; when the price is close to the 60-day line, accompanied by increasing trading volume, it is often the best entry point.
My strategy is simple: if the price is above the 60-day line, trade cautiously; if it falls below the 60-day line, reduce positions decisively; if it is far from the 60-day line, remain observant. This simple method has helped me avoid countless crashes.
Rule Four: Don't blink when cutting losses; only then can profits run.
'Take profits and run, hold on through losses' is human nature and the root of losses. I once held onto profitable positions overnight but stubbornly held onto losing positions for six months, resulting in small gains and large losses.
Until I learned a golden rule: cut losses short and let profits run. Now, I set strict stop-loss lines (usually no more than -15%); once triggered, I exit immediately. On the other hand, for profitable positions, I gradually raise the stop-loss level to maximize profits.
Remember, the market is not lacking in opportunities; it lacks capital. Protecting your capital is more important than making money.
Rule Five: Take profits in phases; the middle segment is the most stable.
In the crypto circle, greed is the biggest fatal flaw. I have seen too many people (including myself) give back profits because they wanted to squeeze out a little more. The most painful time was when I watched a coin triple in value drop back to square one.
Now, I implement the 'cake rule': don't eat the whole fish, just eat the middle part. When profits reach 30%, reduce positions by one-third; when profits reach 50%, reduce another third; when profits reach 100%, exit completely. This way, I ensure profits while avoiding regret from exiting too early.
The crypto market is like surfing; you don’t have to catch every wave, just catch the few that belong to you.
Rule Six: Surviving is the hard truth; preserving capital is the top priority.
This last point is my life-and-death line: never let yourself be out of the game. In 239 moments of market panic, those who survived ultimately waited for dawn.
I invest with spare money and never borrow to trade crypto; I diversify my holdings and do not bet on a single coin; I maintain flexible positions and always keep cash on hand. Most importantly, I regularly extract profits from the market, ensuring that the investment results are secure. One day in the crypto world is like a year in the human world. This market is most abundant in opportunities, and what you need to do is survive until the next bull market.
Conclusion: Discipline is the bottom line, patience is the magic weapon
Seven years in the crypto circle has taught me that this market is not about who is smarter, but who is more disciplined and patient. Those who can overcome greed and fear and stick to simple rules will ultimately laugh last.
Every big drop is a test of discipline. Data shows that prolonged deep fear often predicts the arrival of a temporary bottom, which is the market philosophy of 'extremes will reverse'. But when the market is in fear, do you dare to enter? When everyone is greedy, do you dare to exit?
If you are new to this market or still struggling with losses, I hope my experiences can inspire you. The path in the crypto circle is long, and there's no need to rush. Adhere to these six rules; they may not make you rich overnight, but they will likely help you survive.
After all, only by surviving can you talk about the future. Follow Xiang Ge to learn more about first-hand information and precise points in the cryptocurrency circle; become your guide in the crypto world, as learning is your greatest wealth!#比特币流动性 #ETH走势分析 $ETH
