1. The starting point of enlightenment: When the methods of the 'great god' fail
In my first three years in the industry, like most newcomers, I was superstitious about technical indicators, chased trends, and was obsessed with 'strategies.' At that time, I could stay up late drawing candlestick charts and memorizing formulas, thinking I had mastered the 'holy grail,' and even made some small money through short-term trading, feeling like I could punch Buffett and kick Soros.
Until during an offline communication, an old veteran who has experienced two rounds of bull and bear markets said something that broke my defense on the spot:
“Your flashy techniques are just traps designed by the market long ago. What works today will be your pit tomorrow.”
At that time, I scoffed at it, but before long, I was slapped in the face—during a round of collapse, my 'breakthrough chasing' strategy repeatedly failed, and my capital shrank by 40%. At that moment, I realized: the market is alive, but the methods are dead.
Second, cognition is the only 'chip' that will not be outdated.
The traditional financial circle often says 'knowledge is wealth', but in the crypto market, knowledge may quickly expire, while the ability to iterate cognition is the moat. For example:
During the DeFi explosion in 2020, many were obsessed with technical white papers, but overlooked the essence of liquidity mining as an 'inflation game'.
In 2024, the inscriptions are hot, and some follow the trend to jump on meme coins, but they don't understand that the underlying protocol is a game of community consensus.
I gradually realized that rather than studying 'how to make money', it's better to think clearly about 'why money comes to me'—is it luck? Is it the cycle? Or is it cognitive bias? The real ability is to identify the unchanging laws amidst the noise: for example, human greed breeds bubbles, liquidity drives valuations, and policies change expectations.
Third, my practical mindset: light on prediction, heavy on response.
Now my trading system is extremely simple, with just three core principles:
Don't bet on direction, just play probabilities.
For instance, when the Fed's interest rate cut expectations heat up, I won't blindly chase long positions, but instead build positions in batches, leaving room for additional purchases. Even if the market 'misjudges' the policy, there is a plan to retreat.
Stop-loss is more important than profit.
Set a hard stop-loss line (for example, -15%), and don't harbor a fluke mentality. Remember: losing 50% requires a 100% increase to break even.
Most of the time, I 'lie flat', and at critical moments, I 'invest heavily'.
80% of the profits in the crypto market come from 20% of the time. Before certain opportunities arise (such as ETF approvals or technical breakthroughs at key resistance levels), patiently accumulate chips, and once the signal confirms, dare to bet.
Fourth, confront your inner demons: loneliness is a necessary lesson for winners.
The most ironic thing about the market is that when everyone is crazy, danger is closest; when the market is quiet, opportunity is greatest.
In 2023, Bitcoin fell to $16,000, and the forum was full of wailing, but I was dollar-cost averaging at the bottom.
In 2025, as Trump's policies took effect, retail investors flocked to meme coins, while I reduced my holdings to hedge.
This 'anti-human nature' operation requires a strong belief. I often remind myself: the hustle and bustle belongs to the leeks, loneliness belongs to the winners.
Fifth, heartfelt words for ordinary people.
Don't believe in 'getting rich overnight'.
The crypto market indeed creates miracles, but there is a serious survivor bias. Steady and steady can outperform 90% of people.
Your cognition determines the thickness of your wealth.
If you can't even clearly explain the project's logic and risks, then the money you earn will eventually be given back.
Maintain reverence; the market always has black swans.
Even with a 99% win rate, leave room for the 1% unexpected.
The last bit of feeling.
Over the years, I have seen analysts miss out, big players blow up, and novices achieve a comeback through patience. Ultimately, it is discovered that investing is not a technical game, but a cultivation of temperament. When you can free yourself from emotional bondage and make decisions based on common sense, the market will treat you gently.
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