The military industry sector leads the market sentiment A-shares three major indexes continue to rise

Today, the A-share market continues its warming trend, with all three major indexes turning positive, the Shanghai Composite Index opened high and rose by 20 points, refreshing the recent high since this round of rebound, getting closer to the 4000-point integer mark.

From the market structure, the military industrial chain has become the core main line driving the market upwards, with military electronics, terahertz, commercial aerospace, satellite navigation, large aircraft, aircraft engines, military equipment, military information technology, and Chengfei concepts among the leading segments in terms of gains. Analyzing the annual performance of the sector, the military theme overall shows strong momentum, with the aforementioned sub-sectors having cumulative gains exceeding 40% this year. Considering the trend of industrial development, satellite navigation, military electronics, aviation equipment, and military-civilian integration sectors have high allocation value, as they are all direct beneficiaries of the commercial aerospace industry's development. It is worth noting that global commercial aerospace leader SpaceX plans to go public on the US stock market next year, and the company's valuation has currently risen to $800 billion, with market expectations that its valuation may exceed $1.5 trillion after the listing. Considering the industry prosperity and market expectations, the commercial aerospace sector has high research value in the coming year, and the investment strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips and avoiding blind chasing of highs.

The ChiNext index also performed strongly today, with an intraday increase of over 20 points, and the daily K-line showing a three-day upward trend, while maintaining stability above the 20-day moving average for nearly a month, with an overall stable operating trend. However, it is necessary to be vigilant as the ChiNext index currently faces a critical resistance level of 3300 points, which has strong resistance. Looking back at historical trends, the ChiNext index has attempted to break this level twice in October, both ending with a rebound after hitting high points. Two months later, the index is once again approaching this pressure range; if this breakthrough fails, a triple top formation may occur technically, and the adjustment risk faced by the index will further increase.

Regarding the Shanghai Composite Index, today it continues the pattern of high opening and high closing, with the daily K-line recording six consecutive ups, and has been running above the 20-day moving average for four consecutive trading days, with the market sentiment becoming warmer. However, from the perspective of volume-price relationship analysis, there are obvious concerns about the current upward movement of the Shanghai Composite Index: first, the index's rise is mainly characterized by gradual increases with small upward lines, and there has not yet been a medium upward line level breakout; second, the trading volume in the Shanghai market has not effectively expanded, with the peak daily trading volume only reaching 800 billion yuan, and today’s trading volume even falling short of this level. Judging from the perspective of volume support, a trading volume of 800 billion yuan may support the index to remain stable above the 20-day moving average, but it is difficult to push the Shanghai Composite Index to break through the 4000-point integer mark. In the short term, as the index approaches 4000 points, if the trading volume does not expand simultaneously, the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to face pressure from high rebounds, and there is even a possibility of a pullback to the 20-day moving average.

In addition to the core sectors, the following two major directions also have attention value:

First, the oversold consumer sector. Today, under the background of a general rise in the A-share market, the consumer theme adjusted against the trend, with sub-segments such as dairy, liquor, food processing, beverage manufacturing, pork, and retail all closing in the red, but the overall decline was relatively mild, with most sectors controlling their daily decline within 1%, and some oversold targets have already shown signs of rebound in the afternoon. From the annual performance perspective, the consumer sector is the most significantly lagging direction in the A-share market, with the liquor sector falling over 10% this year, leading the decline among major sectors. Based on the oversold rebound and the logic of catch-up, combined with the expectations of a consumption peak season brought by the upcoming Spring Festival, the lagging consumer sector has the potential for recovery.

Second, the main line of annual report pre-increase. As 2025 approaches its end, the A-share market is about to enter the annual report disclosure window period. Historical experience shows that the direction of annual report performance exceeding expectations is often the core main line of cross-year market trends, with ST sectors, delisting concepts, high dividend concepts, high transfer concepts, and annual report pre-increase concepts being key areas for market funds. The commonality of the above concepts is that the related listed companies have solid fundamental support for rapid performance growth, and profit growth is not only the core driving force for stock price increases but also a key factor in unlocking upward space for stock prices. In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to focus on high-quality enterprises that have sustained high growth in performance during the first three quarters, as these targets have the potential to become cross-year bull stocks or even double bull stocks.