Dedicated to those who no longer want to be 'chives'
I used to be like you, staying up late every night staring at the candlestick charts, chasing trends, listening to rumors, and ended up with 80% losses due to 'randomly selecting targets'. Later, I figured out a simple method: not researching complicated indicators, not chasing insider news, but relying on 'three-step screening + one buying point + three phrases'. As a result, I avoided three crashes in the past year, with returns stable at over 40%. Today, I reveal everything, hoping you take fewer detours.
1. Screening targets: Just like picking fruit, throw away the bad ones
Step 1: First, look at 'Who is rising'
I have a hard rule: only choose coins from the top 50 in terms of gains over the last 10 days. Why? If a coin can rush into the front row in the short term, it indicates that funds are paying attention. Even if it is speculation, it has an extra layer of safety compared to obscure coins. For example, a certain AI concept coin last month rose by 70% in a week; I could still get a bite; whereas those 'zombie coins' that haven't moved for half a year should not be touched, as they are likely to go completely to zero after you enter.
Step 2: Remove those with 'suspicion of unloading'
Even if it rises sharply, if it falls for 3 consecutive days, cut it off immediately! This is not a signal of market manipulation, but a sign of a sell-off after a rise. For example, a certain DeFi coin previously rose sharply and then fell for 5 days, subsequently halving 50%. Remember: in a bull market, funds rotate quickly, strong coins won't correct for more than 2 days; if it doesn't bounce back in three days, it's definitely a trap.
Step 3: Lock in the 'monthly trend'
This is the most critical step: the monthly MACD must cross upwards at the bottom. Why look at the monthly line? Because the main force at the daily level can draw charts to deceive you, but no trader can long-term fake the fund movements at the monthly level. For example, a certain public chain coin I caught earlier this year had a monthly MACD crossing above the zero axis, and later tripled. The monthly line indicates the direction of the ship; when the direction is right, even big waves can be navigated.
2. Buying point: just wait for the 'golden foot'
I have seen too many people lose by 'guessing the bottom'—they wait for a lower price even after a drop, and end up missing out. Now my strategy is very simple: if the daily line tests the 60-day moving average and the trading volume increases by more than 1.2 times, it's a signal to enter.
For example, last month, a certain mainstream coin dropped from $300 to $265, just hitting the 60-day line. The trading volume that day was 30% higher than the average of the previous 5 days, so I decisively entered the market and made 40% profit after 20 days. Why was it effective? The 60-day line is a medium-term lifeline, and increased volume indicates that funds recognize this level. Don't be greedy to catch the lowest point; it's better to get on steadily.
3. Selling mantra: only what you have earned is money
Many people earn but do not sell, and end up losing their principal because they lack rules. My mantra is just three sentences:
Buy in batches and sell in batches: sell 1/3 when it rises by 30%, sell another 1/3 when it rises by 50%, and hold the rest to follow the trend, but the bottom line is to never let it turn into a loss.
Run as soon as the line is broken, don't hold onto fantasies: if the closing price breaks below the 60-day line, confirm at 12 AM and decisively liquidate. Intraday spikes are often a lure for shorts, but closing below the line is a real trend change.
Leave profits as a 'bulletproof vest': take out 50% of the money earned, either save it in U or convert it to BTC. Having food on hand ensures you won't panic during a crash.
4. The ultimate guide to avoiding pitfalls: surviving is winning
Coins outside the top 100 by market capitalization and with a daily trading volume of less than 10 million U are not worth touching, no matter how hot they are—when liquidity is poor, you won't even be able to sell.
If the project team has been inactive for 3 months, block them directly: either they have run away or they have completely fizzled out; don't believe the nonsense about 'technical upgrades'.
Position management is more important than technology: divide the principal into 10 parts, buy only 1 part at a time, and keep 3 parts in cash for buying the dip in case of a crash. I once bought the dip during the ETH crash and made an extra 60% after the rebound.
Finally, let me say something heartfelt
The crypto circle is not lacking in 'myths'; what's lacking is people who can survive longer. Complex indicators cannot be fully learned, but if you maintain trends, positions, and discipline, you can outperform most people. Of course, when a black swan comes, no one can avoid it, so my bottom line is: only invest idle money; even if you lose it all, it won't affect your life.
If you find this article useful, share it with those brothers who always lose money. Steady profit is better than anything. Follow Xiang Ge to learn more about first-hand information and precise points in the crypto circle; learning is your greatest wealth!#ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 $ETH
