Tom Lee recently said that the price of Bitcoin could exceed $100,000 before the end of 2025. It's a bold call, especially with Bitcoin trading sideways and the momentum seeming tired. At first glance, the market does not seem ready. Large money flows are weakening, long-term holders are selling, and price movement remains constrained.

But Bitcoin has one path that still makes my prediction possible. It does not rely on new purchases. It depends on positioning.

Big money and conviction holders still face challenges.

The first problem in Tom Lee's Bitcoin price prediction, highlighted on CNBC, stems from capital flows.

The Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, which tracks whether large capital is entering or exiting the market, is still weak. Between December 17 and 23, the price of Bitcoin rose slightly, but the CMF indicator continued to trend downward. This is a bearish signal. It shows that larger players are reducing exposure even as the price continues.

CMF readings also sharply collapsed after December 21, dropping over 200% before returning toward 68%. The rebound looks encouraging, but CMF is still below zero. This means that incoming capital flows remain weak, not strong.

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The second headwind comes from long-term rights holders. These wallets have historically sold late, not early.

Over the past month, the change in net positions of long holders has remained significantly negative. On November 23, long holders were selling about 97,800 Bitcoins daily. By December 23, this number had risen to nearly 279,000 Bitcoins sold in a single day. This is an increase of 185%.

This is a massive increase in distribution by holders of convictions. When both large capital flow and long holders lean negatively, continuous upward movement becomes difficult.

The only way Bitcoin can reach $100,000.

Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin hasn’t run out of options. But the path depends on unexpected strength.

The market is heavily leaning towards selling on desks.

Looking at the 30-day liquidation map, the short liquidation tram leverage approaches $3.41 billion. The long liquidation leverage approaches $2.14 billion. This imbalance means that over 60% of leverage is directed against price increases.

This is important because when buying pressure is weak, the price can rise through forced liquidation, as has happened before. Simply put, Bitcoin does not need new buyers. It needs the shorts to be wrong.

A sharp upward move will force short positions to close, leading to automatic buying. This buying can lead to another liquidation, even if underlying demand remains weak.

This is the only realistic mechanism left for a rapid upward movement. Also, the largest part of the liquidation cluster on the short side lies between $88,390 and $96,070. It's time to see if Bitcoin price levels can move within that area.

Bitcoin price levels that determine whether Tom Lee is right.

For short pressure to begin, Bitcoin must surpass specific levels.

The first area is around $91,220. Continuous movement above this area will start to liquidate low-leverage short positions. This alone will improve momentum in the short term.

The real trigger is approaching $97,820. This level has defined the price several times since mid-November and aligns with the densest short liquidation cluster. And if it approaches the peak, it will put most of the $3.41 billion in short leverage at risk.

If this sequence begins, Bitcoin could quickly move toward the psychological level of $100,380 without needing strong capital flows or long-term support from holders. But this rejection is clear.

If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $91,220 and continues to drift sideways, the weakness in CMF and the selling of long holders remain dominant. In this case, the selling never starts, and Tom Lee's target for Bitcoin price remains out of reach. Currently, Bitcoin is struggling between selling with conviction and financial positions.

The forecasts live or die on just one thing: whether the short positions will be forced to cover.