Many people are asking whether tonight's initial unemployment claims data in the U.S. is good or bad. At this point, it should be noted that this thing itself does not have an absolute good or bad; the key is to look at the difference between the published value and market expectations.
If the published value is lower than expected, it indicates a decrease in unemployment claims, suggesting a strong job market. In this case, the market will strengthen the expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates and be less eager to cut rates, which is usually good for the dollar and tends to be bad for risk assets like Bitcoin.
If the published value is higher than expected, it indicates an increase in unemployment claims, signaling a weakening job market. The market is likely to trade on the expectation of rate cuts in advance, putting pressure on the dollar, which in turn benefits the performance of risk assets and makes the crypto market stronger.
In summary, it can be boiled down to one sentence:
If the data is stronger than expected, it is bearish for the crypto space; if the data is weaker than expected, it is bullish for the crypto space.
Real volatility is not only about the results but also about how significant the difference is from expectations, as well as whether the market moves in line with the trend after the data is released.
