The market rhythm is changing, and smart money has quietly adjusted their positions.
As an experienced trader who has been in the crypto market for many years, I made a surprising decision last week: I liquidated half of my altcoin positions and reallocated the funds to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
This is not a spur-of-the-moment decision, but the result of years of accumulated market intuition and professional judgment. Today, as the market insights from top market maker Wintermute are gradually being digested by the market, I am even more convinced of the correctness of this judgment.
The market trend has changed, and funds are quietly flowing back to mainstream coins.
When we analyze Wintermute's latest report in depth, a clear picture emerges: market funds are quietly flowing from high-risk altcoins to mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
This rotation actually has profound market logic. In a healthy bull market, Bitcoin always builds the stage first, and then altcoins have their performance opportunities. Remembering late 2024 to early 2025, Bitcoin, driven by institutional demand and the success of the US spot ETF, saw historic gains, attracting a lot of new funds. This is a typical characteristic of 'Bitcoin season.'
Currently, as Bitcoin stabilizes above $87,000, a key change is happening: buying power is overpowering selling power in mainstream coins. This is reflected not only in price stability but also in the deeper changes in capital flow.
Why are mainstream coins more attractive?
First, market volatility is repricing risk. Looking back at the 'epic crash' on October 11, altcoins, especially meme coins, suffered the most, with many dropping over 90% in an instant, while Bitcoin and Ethereum's maximum decline was only around 15%. This extreme market condition reveals the risk differences between different assets.
Secondly, the preferences of institutional funds determine the market rhythm. Wintermute founder Evgeny Gaevoy pointed out in a recent sharing: 'In the next few months, the market outside of mainstream coins will be impacted. This liquidation mainly occurs in altcoins... funds will be more concentrated on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL, which are the mainstream coins.'
Data shows that this central tendency is accelerating. Despite recent net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, Solana ETFs have shown net inflows, indicating that institutional funds are selectively flowing into certain mainstream assets.
How do market makers influence market rhythm?
As one of the largest market makers in the crypto space, Wintermute provides liquidity for over 200 tokens, covering almost all mainstream exchanges. Their movements often signal market changes.
In the recent market fluctuations, major market makers like Wintermute faced a key challenge: under extreme market conditions, reallocating assets across exchanges became difficult, leading to an inability to provide liquidity effectively. In this case, liquidity naturally concentrates on mainstream coins because they have better depth and stronger risk resistance.
The founder of Wintermute admitted that during market crashes, 'market makers want to buy here and sell there, but stablecoins and tokens can't be withdrawn from different platforms, making it impossible to operate.' The existence of such structural issues makes mainstream coins more resilient during volatile periods.
My personal strategy adjustment
Based on these observations, I made the following adjustments recently:
Reduced my altcoin position from 35% of total assets to 15%, mainly clearing out those small-cap tokens with weak fundamentals;
Increased my Bitcoin and Ethereum positions from 45% to 65%, focusing on adding to SOL, which has performed steadily recently;
Retain 20% of stablecoins as 'bullets' to prepare for action during extreme market volatility.
This adjustment is not out of fear, but rather an active adaptation to market rhythms. The secret to making money in a bull market is not to hold on all the time, but to dance with the market rhythm.
Next, pay attention to these signals
For the subsequent market, I will closely monitor the following key signals:
Will Bitcoin's dominance (BTC.D) drop below 60%? This is an important technical indicator for judging whether the altcoin season is coming. Currently, BTC.D remains at a relatively high level, indicating that funds have not yet flowed significantly into altcoins.
Performance of the ETH/BTC trading pair. When Ethereum begins to strengthen against Bitcoin, it is usually an early signal that the rotation of altcoins is about to begin.
Federal Reserve policy trends. Liquidity is the lifeline of speculative assets, and the liquidity situation in global financial markets directly affects risk appetite.
Currently, these signals indicate that mainstream coins are still a relatively safe choice.
Conclusion: Patiently await the 'perfect storm' for altcoins
I still have high hopes for the long-term potential of altcoins, especially those projects in popular tracks like AI + blockchain, public chain ecology, and RWA that have practical applications. But timing is everything.
The current market is like a carefully choreographed dance with Bitcoin leading, Ethereum following, and finally a collective celebration of altcoins. We are in the later part of the first stage, where patience and discipline are more important than blindly chasing gains.
The founder of Wintermute noted: 'This incident did not trigger a massive chain reaction of institutional liquidations, and the risks have been controlled.' This judgment keeps me optimistic about the overall health of the market and strengthens my resolve for current strategy adjustments.
A bull market is not a sprint but a marathon. Taking steps at the right rhythm is more important than blindly running.
What stage do you think the current market is in? Feel free to share your views and strategies in the comments!
This article only represents personal opinions and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly risky, please make decisions cautiously.
