Today, the twenty-fourth of December 2025, witnesses a complex divergence in global financial markets, where traditional macroeconomic factors intertwine with the specific dynamics of the cryptocurrency sector, creating a scene characterized by extreme caution and "excessive fear" from individual investors, in contrast to calculated strategic moves by major institutions.
1.1 The Dilemma of American Economic Growth and Monetary Policy
Recent data indicates that the US economy recorded a GDP growth of 4.3% during the third quarter, significantly exceeding economists' expectations of around 3.2%. Under normal circumstances, strong economic growth is seen as a positive indicator for financial markets; however, its impact on high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies has been inverse in this specific time frame.
This reverse effect is attributed to expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Strong data gives the Fed more room to delay rate cuts or slow down their pace in 2026, as there is no pressing recessionary pressure necessitating urgent monetary easing. This has led to a slight increase in bond yields and stability in the dollar index, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Former President Donald Trump has criticized this trend, stating that the Fed should accelerate interest rate cuts to further boost the economy, reflecting the ongoing political debate regarding monetary policy and its direct impact on the markets.
1.2 Decoupling Between Gold and Bitcoin: The Collapse of the 'Digital Gold' Narrative
Perhaps the most notable aspect of trading at the end of 2025 is the stark decoupling in correlation between physical gold and Bitcoin. While gold futures have reached new historical highs exceeding $4,500 an ounce, driven by demand as a safe haven amid geopolitical tensions and global financial uncertainty, Bitcoin and digital currencies are experiencing intense selling pressures.
This disparity shows that traditional investors, in times of extreme uncertainty, still prefer tangible traditional assets over 'digital gold'. Bitcoin has fallen by nearly 6% since the beginning of the year while gold has risen by 70%, delivering a strong blow to the narrative that Bitcoin is the optimal hedge against inflation or currency disruption in the short term. However, analysts believe this decoupling may be temporary and related to year-end liquidity dynamics, as digital assets are being liquidated faster to cover other financial positions or for tax purposes.
1.3 Market Psychology: Fear and Greed Index
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index accurately reflects the sentiment of traders, remaining at a level of 24 points, indicating a state of 'extreme fear'. This low level, not seen in the market for several weeks, reflects a temporary loss of confidence among retail investors due to recent price volatility and Bitcoin's repeated failure to break the $90,000 barrier.
Historically, periods of 'extreme fear' are seen as potential buying opportunities for long-term investors who adopt a 'buy the dip' strategy. However, the coincidence of this fear with the holiday season and low liquidity makes it difficult to predict a rapid rebound, as most major players prefer to wait until the new year to inject new liquidity.
2. Bitcoin (BTC): In-depth analysis of inflows and prices
Bitcoin remains the main driver of the market, with its movements serving as an indicator for the rest of the altcoins. On December 24, 2025, Bitcoin faces structural challenges related to ETF inflows and seasonal selling pressures.
2.1 Price Dynamics and Technical Levels
Bitcoin is trading in the range of $87,000, recording a slight decline between 0.8% and 2.5% over the past 24 hours. The price has repeatedly failed to hold above the psychological and technical resistance level at $90,000, leading to a decline in bullish momentum and entering a downward-sloping consolidation phase.
Technically, analysts indicate that breaking the support level at $87,000 may open the door to testing lower levels around $84,000 or even $81,000, which are important historical support areas. This decline is partially driven by liquidations of high-leverage long positions, with nearly $205 million worth of Bitcoin positions liquidated in a single day, as part of a 'Leverage Flush' process aimed at flushing out weak speculators from the market.
2.2 Analysis of Exchange-Traded Fund (Spot Bitcoin ETFs) Inflows
ETF inflows are the most accurate indicator of institutional appetite on Wall Street. Recent data reveals a notable negative shift:
Net Outflows: Bitcoin spot funds in the US experienced net outflows of nearly $500 million over the past week, with this trend continuing with an outflow of $142.2 million on December 22 (the actual data affecting today's trades).
Detailing fund performance:
BlackRock Fund (IBIT): Despite historical dominance, the fund recorded very minimal inflows of only about $6 million, a figure that is hardly significant compared to outflows from other funds, indicating a halt in major institutions from injecting new cash.
Fidelity Fund (FBTC): which was a strong competitor, has seen outflows in recent days, reflecting profit-taking or rebalancing of investment portfolios before the year's end.
Bitwise Fund (BITB): recorded the largest relative outflows, amounting to about $35 million in a single session, putting pressure on net assets under management.
This temporary institutional withdrawal is mainly attributed to the 'tax-loss harvesting' strategy, where funds and investors sell losing or underperforming assets to offset capital gains realized in other sectors (such as technology and artificial intelligence stocks that performed strongly), in order to reduce tax burden before the fiscal year-end.
2.3 Positive Geopolitical Developments: The Case of El Salvador
Amid this negative data, a light shines at the end of the tunnel from Central America. El Salvador, the leading country in Bitcoin adoption, received rare praise from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding its economic progress. This development carries deep strategic implications; it suggests a potential softening in the stance of international financial institutions towards countries adopting digital assets, which could remove a significant barrier for other countries considering similar steps. If this trend continues, we may witness a new wave of government adoption of Bitcoin as a reserve asset by 2026, enhancing its intrinsic value away from daily speculation.
