A new analysis rekindles one of the most important debates in the world of cryptocurrencies: Should investors hold or sell tokens after receiving an airdrop?
Data shared by a trader shows that most tokens dropped via airdrop lose significant value after launch, raising questions about whether selling is the most rational strategy.
Most cryptocurrencies perform worse after launch, according to analyses.
In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), cryptocurrency trader Didi tracked personal receipt records from last year. The data revealed that almost all tokens incurred significant losses after their launch. For example, the M3M3 index dropped by 99.64%, the Elixir index fell by 99.50%, and the usual index decreased by 97.67%.
Major projects have also lost significant value. Magic Eden declined by 96.6%, Jupiter dropped by 75.9% from its TGE price, and Monad fell by 39.13% since its debut. The only token that exceeded its original price was Avantis, which gained 30.4%.
"Of the 30 airdrops I received since December 2024, only one is trading today above its TGE price. However, selling an airdrop at launch somehow makes you a 'traitor.' Let’s be honest about the game we’re playing. We’re all here to make money. Anyone who says otherwise is lying to themselves," the post read.
The analyst added that historical data shows that holding altcoins over the long term is a low-probability strategy, as the likelihood of losses far outweighs the chances of achieving sustainable gains.
"Understand the environment you operate in and prioritize capital preservation above all else. Profits only become real when realized," said Didi.
The entire industrial analysis seems to reinforce these conclusions. Memento Research analyzed 118 token generation events in 2025 and found that 84.7% of the launched tokens are currently trading below their TGE valuation.
Moreover, 65% of those tokens lost about 50% of their value. Meanwhile, more than half of the count declined by 70% or more.
The report indicated that projects that debuted with fully diluted valuations (FDV) performed particularly poorly. Of the 28 launches that started with an FDV of a billion dollars or more, none are currently environmentally friendly today.
"When you break the year down by starting FDV quarters, the pattern is clear: the cheapest and least FDV launches were the only ones that had a real survival rate (40% green) and a relatively moderate average decline (~-26%), while everything above the average pack was repriced to the floor with average losses ranging from ~-70% to -83% and very few greens," the report stated.
An analyst noted that many cryptocurrency projects aim for valuations in the billions regardless of product maturity or utility. Many tokens open trading at levels far removed from their fundamental or fair values, leading to rapid repricing once market forces take hold.
"Anyone who doesn't sell most of these drops in the secondary version is either foolish or doesn't understand how valuation works," he said.
Fatigue from the downturn increases with deteriorating mechanics and fading trust.
Aside from the ongoing price pressure, investor interest in airdrops began to wane in 2025 for structural reasons. Market participants increasingly argue that the airdrop model itself has become too complicated, exclusionary, and prone to abuse.
The commentator in the cryptocurrency world, Maran, explained this shift by comparing airdrop mechanisms from the past to those of the present. In previous cycles, airdrops often required limited participation, such as wallet connection, and distributed relatively large allocations.
By 2025, many projects are implementing stricter eligibility standards, including longer participation periods, technical requirements, registration windows, or vesting schedules.
"Four numbers were very easy back then. Now the four numbers are the highest," the user added.
Another analyst claimed that airdrops are "completely broken" in 2025. Zimza Salim confirmed that Sybil attacks harmed several prominent airdrops in 2025 despite anti-farming measures.
"Meta airdrop in 2025 is now over. Don't waste a month grinding junk while farmers take 20%," said Salim.
Looking at recent data, the latest data highlights a recurring pattern of poor performance post-launch among tokens that were airdropped, also pointing to broader structural challenges within the airdrop model. While some tokens managed to maintain or grow their value over time, the combination of high initial valuations, market repricing, and evolving distribution mechanisms made outcomes highly uncertain.