I am Bai Yue BTC. The market is quite interesting right now, on one hand, there are glaring bearish signals in the technical chart, while on the other hand, an unprecedented heavyweight news just dropped. The bulls and bears are staring each other down at the $87,000 mark, who will win? Today, I will break down these two charts for everyone.
The news has dropped a 'nuclear bomb'
The news just revealed that this Friday, which is just around the corner, Bitcoin options worth $23.6 billion are set to expire! This is the largest event in Bitcoin's history, bar none. More critically, this options set is overall 'bullish', with a key price point called 'maximum pain' at $96,000. What does that mean?
Bai Yue believes that, simply put, in order to make the most options contracts worthless, there is potential momentum for the price to be 'pulled' towards this position. This is definitely a solid potential positive.
However, the technicals are singing a different tune.
Let's look at the 4-hour chart again; the current price is 87190 dollars, just at a position called 'target support' (around 87174). On the indicators, the MACD has already dropped below the zero axis, and the market momentum is clearly bearish. The trading volume has also shrunk significantly, indicating everyone is quite hesitant and not daring to enter the market. Overall, the chart does appear to be in a downward oscillation, with a lot of resistance levels above.
When news and technicals 'fight', who should retail investors listen to?
The current situation is like the 'weather forecast' on the technical side saying it’s about to rain, but the 'satellite cloud map' on the news side shows that a huge warm current of bullish options expiration is coming, likely dispersing the rain clouds, even bringing in a bright sunny day. If you don’t know how to time the market, you can follow Bai Yue, who will provide real-time analysis in the village and give the current best entry points.
In terms of operations, what should retail investors do?
Key positions are closely monitored: the lower range of 86500-84000 is the core support zone, while the upper range of 87500-88500 is short-term resistance. Watch which side the price breaks first.
Strategy leans more towards buying low: if the price pulls back to the support zone, especially stabilizing near 86000 dollars, consider taking small positions and gradually building up some long positions, aiming for the opportunity to be driven up by the news.
Do not chase prices up or down: in case it shoots straight up, don't get excited and chase it; wait for a pullback. If it breaks below 84000 with strong volume, then it’s better to wait temporarily, indicating that the forces of bulls and bears are more complex than we think. If you don't know how to time the market, you can follow Bai Yue, who will provide real-time analysis in the village and give the current best entry points.
My personal opinion is: short-term speculation is intense, but the power of the 'nuclear bomb' may be greater. The technical adjustments can be understood as the market’s caution and buildup before significant events. Facing the power level of 23.6 billion dollars, the current bearish momentum may not be able to withstand it. The market is likely to follow a 'first suppress then rise' pattern, initially pretending to dip, testing the support strength around 84000-86500, and then being pulled up by the immense influence of option expiration, with the real target pointing towards the 'maximum pain point' area of 96000 dollars.
The market always has opportunities; the key is to operate calmly. Bai Yue will continue to keep an eye on the on-chain dynamics, helping everyone move steadily forward together! Follow Bai Yue and participate in every attack by the Bai Yue villagers! Bai Yue will announce the specific entry times and real-time news in the village every day!
