New analysis revives one of the crypto world's most important debates: Should investors hold or sell tokens after receiving airdrops?
Data shared by a trader shows that most tokens received via airdrops lose significant value after launch, raising questions about whether selling is the most rational strategy.
Most crypto tokens perform poorly after launch, analysis shows.
In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), crypto trader Didi tracked his personal airdrop receipts from the past year. The figures showed that almost all tokens experienced significant losses after launch. For example, M3M3 fell by 99.64%, Elixir by 99.50%, and USUAL by 97.67%.
Larger projects also lost significant value. Magic Eden fell 96.6%, Jupiter fell 75.9% from its TGE price, and Monad fell 39.13% since its launch. The only token above its starting price was Avantis, with a rise of 30.4%.
“Of the 30 airdrops I have received since December 2024, there is only one that is trading slightly above the TGE price today. Yet, you are called a 'traitor' if you sell an airdrop at launch. Let's be honest about the game we play. We are here to make money. Anyone who says otherwise is lying to themselves,” the post wrote.
The analyst added that historical data shows that holding altcoins over time is a strategy with a low probability of profit, where the risk of loss is much greater than the chance of lasting gains.
“Understand the environment you operate in and prioritize capital protection above all else. Gains are only real when realized,” stated Didi.
Industry-wide analysis appears to reinforce these conclusions. Memento Research analyzed 118 token generation events in 2025 and found that 84.7% of tokens are currently trading below their TGE value post-launch.
Additionally, 65% of these tokens have lost around 50% of their value. At the same time, over half have fallen 70% or more.
The report pointed out that projects debuting with high fully diluted valuation (FDV) performed particularly poorly. Of the 28 launches that started with an FDV of $1 billion or more, none are in the green today.
“When you split the year after start FDV quartiles, the pattern is clear: The cheapest and lowest FDV launches were the only group with a meaningful survival rate (40% plus) and relatively small median decline (~-26%), while everything above the middle was effectively set to the bottom with median losses of ~-70% to -83% and almost none in the green,” the report states.
An analyst pointed out that many crypto projects aim for billions in valuation regardless of the product's maturity or utility. Many tokens therefore start with trading levels far from actual or fair value, leading to rapid repricing when market forces take over.
“Anyone who doesn't sell most of these drops at TGE doesn't understand how valuation works,” he stated.
Airdrop fatigue increases as mechanisms deteriorate and trust weakens.
In addition to persistent price pressure, interest in airdrops among investors has declined in 2025 for structural reasons. More market participants now believe that the airdrop model itself has become too complicated, exclusive, and vulnerable to abuse.
Crypto commentator Maran illustrated this shift by comparing past and current airdrop mechanisms. In previous cycles, airdrops often required only connecting a wallet and distributing relatively large allocations.
In 2025, many projects have stricter requirements to qualify, including longer commitments, more technical requirements, registration windows, or allocations with vesting.
“Four digits were somewhat easy before. Now four digits are at the top,” the user added.
Another analyst argued that airdrops are “completely broken” in 2025. Zamza Salim emphasized that Sybil attacks compromised several notable airdrops in 2025 despite anti-farming measures.
“The airdrop meta in 2025 is burnt out. Don't waste months struggling for small amounts while farmers get 20%,” commented Salim.
Overall, recent data shows a recurring pattern where tokens from airdrops underperform after launch, while also pointing to structural challenges in the airdrop model. Although some tokens manage to maintain or increase their value over time, a combination of high starting values, market adaptation, and changed distribution mechanisms has made the outcome highly uncertain.
