Brothers, I am Hongcai. Opening ZEC's market, one number strikes hard: a nearly 28% drop over the past 30 days, with the price stuck at a critical position of 412 USD. Now everyone is asking: is it going to make a comeback, or continue to fall into the abyss?
News front
Looking at the data, I found a strange phenomenon: ZEC liquidated 470,000 USD within 4 hours, but the short liquidation amount reached 370,000, almost 4 times that of the long positions! What does this indicate? It indicates that during the decline, there is a force desperately shorting, but it has also suffered heavy losses from the reversal. Both sides are red-eyed here, each believing they can win. This extreme speculation often means that a trend reversal is about to occur, either a sharp rise or a sharp fall.
Technical analysis
The 1-hour chart makes it very clear: MACD just golden crossed and then turned to death cross, like a patient who just had a little improvement and then lay down again.
403, it's the last face of it. If it holds, you can catch your breath and feel the pressure level at 457; if it doesn't hold, the next stop is 360, or even the abyss of 314. The price is now hovering around 412, just one step away from 403, and that step may be the difference between heaven and hell.
My opinion
In trading, I believe one thing: rebounds in a downtrend are all for you to escape. ZEC has dropped nearly 30% in 30 days from its peak, indicating that the bearish force is absolutely dominant. My judgment is straightforward: it is almost impossible to directly rush to 511 in the short term. A greater possibility is to oscillate repeatedly in the range of 403-457; if 403 can't hold, it will likely go to 360 for support. Buying at the bottom now is like reaching out to catch a falling knife.
What should players do?
If you're already in a position: Don't rush to cut losses. The current price is at 412, first see if it can stabilize at 403. If it falls below 403 and doesn't recover within an hour, it's suggested to reduce your position by half to prevent larger losses. If it rebounds, focus on the pressure level at 457; if it can't get past, that's your chance to reduce your position.
If you want to operate: Near 403, place a light long position to bet on a rebound.
If 403 breaks, give up the long position and wait for the price to approach 360 to see if it stops falling.
The market is always like this: beginners look at prices, veterans look at positions, and experts look at timing. Do you always buy halfway up the mountain and sell at the floor? You need an 'eye' that can help you judge key positions and identify true breakthroughs.
If you don't know the specific entry timing and exit points, and fans who are holding positions can follow Hongcai, Hongcai will announce daily coins, entry points, and exit timing in the chat room 24 hours a day!!!#加密市场观察 $ZEC
