❌ After the loud headlines about the 'death of the alt season', many were waiting for a rebuttal. But 2025 not only confirmed this thesis — it solidified it with numbers. The new report from Memento Research on the token launches of the year provides a cold, statistical response: the classic alt season is structurally broken.
1️⃣ Figures that can no longer be ignored
In 2025, 118 tokens were analyzed after TGE. The result looks harsh:
84.7% of tokens are trading below the launch price
Median loss:
– -71.1% from FDV
– -66.8% from Market Cap65% of tokens fell by more than 50%
51% — more than 70%
Only 15.3% of launches are in the positive
This is not a 'failed cycle.' This is a systemic failure of the alt launch model.
2️⃣ The most painful discovery: TGE is no longer an early entry
The key shift that many ignore:
TGE in 2025 is not the start of growth, but often a local maximum.
The segment of large launches is particularly indicative:
28 tokens with FDV ≥ $1 billion
0% of them are in the positive
Median loss ≈ -81%
That is: the 'more solid' the launch, the worse the financial result for the market.
Myths about 'top funds,' 'strong teams,' and 'high FDV as protection' have stopped working.
3️⃣ Why this is the death of the classical alt season
The alt season of past cycles was built on simple logic:
liquidity is flowing into everything that is not BTC.
In 2025, this logic broke. The reason is simple:
most new alts are toxic to liquidity.
new tokens create downside, not upside;
there is no mass rotation because the base probability of success is against the investor;
the market has become selective, not broad.
The alt season is not 'delayed.' It is economically impossible in its old form.
4️⃣ But this does not mean 'the end of alts'
The data shows otherwise: the alt market has become venture-like.
Where else there is life:
Perp DEX — average result +200%+, but this is rare
DeFi — not an explosion, but survival
Niche data cases with real use
That is, mass pumping has disappeared — only selection remains.
Conclusion from @MoonMan567
The alt season in the classical sense will not return, as its economic base has disappeared.
The year 2025 showed this not through thoughts, but through numbers: TGE is no longer an early entry, and liquidity does not save weak models.
The market has matured painfully.
Now alts are not a cycle, but a harsh selection.
👉 Subscribe to @MoonMan567 to navigate the new market structure, rather than waiting for cycles that will no longer come.
