$FIL
The Bank of Japan's hawkish surprise! The next interest rate hike may be brought forward to April, and the crypto market faces a major liquidity test 一起聊聊！
Yen bears are in a panic! The Bank of Japan just raised interest rates to a 30-year high and has released unexpectedly hawkish signals, suggesting that the next rate hike may come sooner than the market expects. Is a shift in global capital flows on the horizon?
Last Friday, after the Bank of Japan officially announced the interest rate hike, Governor Kazuo Ueda clearly stated that "we will continue to raise rates in the future". There is still a considerable distance to the lower limit of the neutral interest rate range of 1.0%-2.5%. Even more explosive is that institutions like JPMorgan are predicting an aggressive forecast of "interest rate hikes in April next year," while the continuous depreciation of the yen is becoming an accelerator for interest rate hikes—the finance minister has issued the sternest intervention warning, and there are concerns within the central bank that depreciation will push up import inflation.
Multiple hawkish signals have emerged: upward adjustments in overseas economic expectations, corporate wage increases becoming a certainty, and real interest rates still at extremely low levels, all suggesting that the interest rate hike cycle is far from over. As a globally low-cost financing currency, interest rate hikes in the yen directly impact arbitrage trading, and the crypto market has always been most sensitive to such liquidity changes. Historical data shows that rising yen financing costs have previously triggered short-term corrections in Bitcoin, but this time, with the misalignment of Federal Reserve policies, the market has shown a contrary reaction of "bad news is priced in."
Hayes has bluntly stated: "Under negative real interest rates, the depreciation of the yen will drive the proliferation of Bitcoin." The Bank of Japan's quarterly report in January, and the two key interest rate hike windows in April and July, could stir up the crypto market at every juncture.
Do you think the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates as scheduled in April? Can Bitcoin withstand the pressure of liquidity contraction and move towards the $100,000 target? Keep an eye on Musk's concept of little puppies 🔥dog p.u.p.p.i.e.s