$BTC Why doesn't Bitcoin break $90,000? The answer lies in the derivatives 📈🤔
If you're feeling frustrated because Bitcoin seems trapped in an eternal "ping pong" between $85,000 and $90,000 while stocks rise, you're not alone. The reality is that it's not a lack of interest, but pure market mechanics.
Currently, there is a massive concentration of options contracts that forces large operators (dealers) to buy when the price falls to $85k and to sell when it approaches $90k to cover their own risks. This creates an artificial ceiling that halts any rally.
However, the outlook is about to change dramatically. On December 26, nearly $27 billion in options expire on Deribit, and the balance is heavily tilted towards buying.
To give you an idea, there are almost three times more bullish bets (calls) than bearish (puts), with most investors looking towards levels between $100,000 and $116,000.
The most interesting aspect is the so-called "maximum pain point," which is situated at $96,000. Historically, the price tends to seek that level near expiration, suggesting that the most likely resolution for this stagnation is a jump towards the upper $90k rather than a drop.
Additionally, implied volatility is at a one-month low, indicating that traders do not see significant risks of a sharp decline in the short term.
🔖 Sometimes, the price does not move due to news, but because of the financial architecture behind it. The lesson is that patience pays off. When you see such a narrow range, it is usually the prelude to an explosive movement once the contracts expire and the dealers stop "holding" the price. Stay calm, as the mechanics point upwards. 🔥
Do you think that after the expiration on December 26 we will finally see Bitcoin touch $100k before the year ends?
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