Unemployment benefits data is coming, a trading opportunity under a bullish trend
Tonight at 21:30, the U.S. will announce the initial unemployment claims for the week ending December 20, with market expectations of 2.2 million, down from 2.24 million; trading is light on Christmas Eve, and volatility can be amplified, overall impact is marginal. I personally think there are three expected scenarios: 1: Core impact logic higher than expected (≥2.25 million): cooling employment - rising interest rate cut expectations - weakening dollar - bullish for gold or short-term surge. 2: In line with expectations (2.18-2.22 million): difficult to change the main line of rate cuts, gold prices likely to continue fluctuating in the 4470-4500 range. 3: Below expectations (≤2.15 million): strong employment → short-term strengthening of the dollar → pressure on gold, watch for support at the 4430 watershed.
From a news perspective, gold prices are experiencing a roller coaster trend, with a strong bullish momentum and a continuous decline of bearish positions. Yesterday, the gold price surged to 4500, then fell back to 4430 and stabilized, this morning refreshed the high point at 4525, followed by a pullback to around 4470 for consolidation.
The overall trend remains bullish, and the pullback is a signal for the bulls to gather strength, with the lower point being the intraday watershed. If it touches this level before the U.S. market opens, it can be a good opportunity to set up long positions. The upper level of 4500 is the key support and resistance level, with daily moving averages in a bullish arrangement. If the European session breaks through early, a pullback before the U.S. market opens is still a good opportunity to go long.
