Now the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice, but BlackRock has come out to sing a different tune, saying there won't be any major moves from the Federal Reserve in 2026. This collision between "market expectations" and "professional judgments from large institutions" highlights just how uncertain the current macroeconomic environment is.
For us investors, we need to be more mindful. Market expectations can change rapidly, and asset prices may have already factored in the anticipated rate cuts. If the rate cuts do not happen as expected, the market is sure to experience some volatility.
Therefore, when we allocate assets, we need to consider the possibility that the interest rate center may move upward in the long term. Cash-like assets and short-term bonds may become more attractive in the future and can be held for a longer time.
Additionally, inflation and employment data will be extremely important going forward; each piece of data could cause the market to tremble, as these figures directly affect the speed of the Federal Reserve's decision-making.
BlackRock's viewpoint also reminds us that the macro situation in the post-pandemic era has changed; we cannot keep applying past cycle models to the current situation.
Now the market is focused on "when to start cutting rates," but BlackRock is focused on "the magnitude and endpoint of the rate-cutting cycle." This divergence exposes the core issue at hand: we may not see a standard cycle of quick rate cuts due to recession, but rather a normalization process of monetary policy that is slow and fraught with uncertainty because inflation is too stubborn. BlackRock's statement that there will be "little major action" in 2026 is based on this judgment of a slow process.
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