December 25 A-share Strategy: Profitability Effect Continues, Anchor Institutional Main Line Without Drifting

1. Core Viewpoint: Six Consecutive Days of Gains Establish Strong Momentum, Institutional Direction Becomes Key to Winning

The A-share market has recorded six consecutive trading days of gains, with significant strong market characteristics and an overall positive atmosphere. The core driving logic lies in the gradual return of institutional funds, which has led to a comprehensive release of localized profitability effects, becoming the core support of the current market.

The current market presents a clear binary pattern: in an expanding environment, core tracks led by institutions are gaining; in a shrinking phase, quantitative funds drive thematic rotations. Taking December 24's market as an example, under the dominance of quantitative funds, the rotation speed of sectors has accelerated, with many individual stocks exhibiting oscillating trends of rising and falling, such as the commercial aerospace sector which adjusted yesterday and surged today. This kind of fast-paced rotation is difficult for ordinary investors to grasp precisely.

The focus of quantitative funds primarily includes local stocks from Fujian, local stocks from Hainan, small consumer stocks, controllable nuclear fusion, etc., mainly for short-term rotations; while institutional funds continue to focus on four core tracks—AI computing power, optical concepts, domestic substitution semiconductors, and new energy (lithium ore, electrolytes, energy storage, inverters). Although there is still rotation within the sectors, the long-term logic is clearer and more certain.

For most investors, if one cannot keep up with the fast pace of quantitative rotation, it is advised to firmly hold core targets led by institutions and patiently wait for the potential spring market that may arise from the further return of institutional funds after the holiday. Coupled with the central bank releasing positive signals in the evening, it is expected that on December 25, the market will continue its rotational rebound trend, with structural opportunities still concentrated in the institutional main line.

2. Sector Rhythm and Layout Suggestions

1. NVIDIA Rubin Technology Chain: Seize Low-Buy Opportunities During Discrepancies

In the second quarter of next year, NVIDIA Rubin server mass production will land, directly driving demand for liquid cooling, Q fabric, drill needles, ultra-low profile copper foil (HVLP), and other subdivided links. Related targets have surged for three consecutive days, becoming a key focus in institutional conference calls. Core targets include Q fabric leader Feilihua, HVLP copper foil core supplier Tongguan Copper Foil, drill needle leader Dingtai High-tech, and liquid cooling target Yingweike. Additionally, Shenling Environment also benefits from related technological applications in liquid cooling business. Currently, the sector has seen a significant increase, and new investors should avoid chasing highs, waiting for low-buy opportunities after discrepancies and corrections.

2. Optical Concept: Clear Consensus Among Institutions, Focus on Leading Subdivisions

The optical concept is a high-consensus track among institutions for next year, continuing to hold layout value. Key focuses include optical module targets Lian Te Technology, Guangxun Technology, and Guangku Technology; optical chip fields such as Shijia Photon and Changguang Huaxin; as well as isolator links like Dongtian Micro, which have high technical barriers and benefit from long-term logic driven by computing power demand growth.

3. Commercial Aerospace: Do Not Chase Rebound Markets, Focus on Observation

On December 24, the commercial aerospace sector experienced an unexpected rebound, but the sector is dominated by quantitative funds, with volatile fluctuations and rapid rotations. At the current stage, it is not advised to blindly follow the trend and join the excitement, in order to avoid losses due to missteps in timing.

4. Power Equipment: Medium to Long-Term Layout, Focus on AIDC Core Links

The power equipment sector leans towards medium to long-term logic, with mild short-term fluctuations, showing an overall upward oscillation trend. Key focuses include transformers in the AIDC (data center power supply) field, which are essential for overseas AI servers. Related targets possess clear growth potential, with core players including Yigor, Sunshine Power, Deye Shares, Artesyn, China XD Electric, and Tebian Electric. Additionally, Jingquan Hua and Siyuan Electric are also worth monitoring due to their layout in AI power supply.

5. Domestic Substitution Semiconductors: Focus on High-Prosperity Subdivisions

Continuing the previous layout logic, key focuses include core domestic substitution directions such as storage devices, photolithography machines, and photoresists. From an industry trend perspective, the expectation for price increases in storage contract prices is clear by the second quarter of 2025, coupled with the price increase logic driven by the improvement in wafer factory capacity utilization, as well as the deepening of domestic substitution in equipment. Related leading subdivisions possess dual recovery space in performance and valuation.