For the week ending December 20, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was 214,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 224,000 and also lower than the previous value. When this data came out, many people's first reaction was 'negative', but from a higher perspective, it actually contributes positively to the expectations for future rate cuts, which is beneficial for the short-term sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, but— the direction must not be mistaken, and the stage must not be misjudged.
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First, let's talk about the data itself.
The initial jobless claims number is lower than expected, indicating that the U.S. labor market still has resilience and the economy has not undergone a cliff-like decline. For the Federal Reserve, this is a signal that 'there's no rush': there's no need for urgent market intervention, but also no need for further tightening. Given the current high interest rates are already putting continuous pressure on the financial system, as long as employment does not spiral out of control, the window for rate cuts still exists, just a matter of exchanging time for space.
It is precisely for this reason that the market's first reaction is often not a crash, but rather an emotional recovery of risk assets. You will see short-term rebounds in the cryptocurrency market, short sellers covering, and capital flowing back, and many people will interpret this as 'confirmation of good news'. From a trading perspective, this understanding is not wrong—short-term is indeed biased towards the bullish.
But the problem is that macro trends and stage positions are far more important than a set of data.
The current position of the cryptocurrency market is neither at the beginning of a bull market nor in the main upward wave, but in a typical oscillation structure in the later stages of a bear market. The characteristics can be summarized in four words: frequent rebounds, poor sustainability.
Every time macro data is slightly dovish and every time interest rate cut expectations rise, there will be a round of rebounds; however, every rebound will eventually be pushed back by larger capital structures. The reason is simple:
Overall liquidity is still contracting.
Institutional capital is leaning towards defense.
The contract market continues to bleed.
Emotional recovery is fast, but confidence recovery is slow.
This determines a reality—positive news can only bring rebounds and cannot change the trend. Therefore, the correct interpretation of this set of initial claims data is: it is positive for the cryptocurrency market in the short term, a bonus for the rhythm, but there is no change in direction.
If you are a trader, after such data is released, what is more suitable to do is to cash in on the rebounds, defend at high levels, and lower expectations, rather than fantasizing about the start of a new bull market just because 'the probability of interest rate cuts has increased'. A real trend reversal has never been achieved through a set of initial claims data.
Summary: Data can ease panic, but it cannot save a bear market; the market can rebound, but the direction will not lie.
In the bear market phase, respect the rebounds, but always maintain a bearish mindset; surviving is more important than anything else.
