HBAR price continues to disappoint. The token has fallen about 26% in the last month and nearly 67% on an annual basis, reflecting persistent weakness in both price and activity. What makes this moment more important is where HBAR is trading now. The price may now aim for levels last tested in October 2024, putting a multi-month bottom back on the table.

The development of the diagrams is clear, and the buying pressure has gradually collapsed. Nevertheless, one unusual measurement suggests that the downside may be approaching exhaustion. Whether this outlier means anything now is the crucial question.

Bear flag breakouts signal risk for trend continuation

On the 4-hour chart, HBAR has executed a textbook example of a bear flag breakout. A bear flag forms when the price falls sharply, consolidates in a tight ascending or sideways channel, and then breaks down further. It is a continuation pattern, not a trend reversal signal.

The HBAR price briefly broke below the flag structure itself near the $0.109 level, and the movement has held without any significant rise.

That confirmation is important. By using the height of the initial flagpole, the projected drop from the breakout points to a move of about 28% from the flag's upper area. From current levels, it places the price targets in the $0.068 range. But if the 4-hour candle manages to close above the lower trendline of the bear flag, the risk of a breakout may temporarily weaken.

That level is very close to the lows last traded in October-November 2024, and therefore this movement implies risk for new multi-month bottoms, not just a short-term dip.

The second confirmation comes from exchange flow data. Buying pressure has been declining for several weeks.

On December 5, net outflow indicated that dip buying was occurring, with about 4.09 million HBAR removed from exchanges. This behavior has gradually weakened. As of now, December 24, net outflow has shrunk to just 314,830 HBAR.

There is a decline of over 92% in net buying pressure.

Simply put, even though prices fell, buyers did not come in with conviction. Instead, the inflow occasionally turned positive, which shows that the selling pressure quickly returned after small declines, suggesting panic exits. When a bear flag breaks down and buying pressure collapses simultaneously, the likelihood of further decline increases significantly.

This explains why the breakout has not attracted aggressive dip buyers. The market does not see this zone as value yet.

A sentiment outlier suggests that the downside may be overcrowded

The only counterbalance to the bearish setup comes from sentiment.

HBAR's positive social sentiment has plummeted from a peak near 76.97 at the end of October to about 1.62 now. That's a drop of nearly 98%. It reflects extreme lack of interest rather than panic-driven excitement.

Historically, similar low sentiment levels have resulted in short-term relief rallies. On November 9, when sentiment hit a local bottom, HBAR rose from about $0.17 to $0.19 in one trading day, an increase of about 12%. On December 1, a sentiment drop followed a rally from $0.13 to $0.14, a rise of about 14% over two days.

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This is the outlier that gives hope.

However, context is important. These recoveries occurred when the structural selling pressure was weaker, and buying flow still existed. Now sentiment is collapsing alongside a confirmed bear flag breakout and dwindling demand. This makes the signal less reliable.

In weak markets, extreme negative sentiment can persist longer than expected.

What happens next with the HBAR price

The HBAR price is at a critical point. The dominant signals remain bearish: a bear flag breakout, collapsing buying pressure, and acceptance below key support levels. As long as the price remains below $0.109, downside risk towards $0.079 and potentially $0.068 (from the 4-hour chart) is still present.

The only thing working against this scenario is that sentiment has become exhausted. If negative sentiment triggers opportunistic buying again during dips, HBAR could experience a short-term rise. But without a clearly increased buying pressure, this rise is likely to fade unless the price reclaims $0.155, the start of the downward momentum.