The price of HBAR has continued its weak development. The token has fallen about 26% in the last month and nearly 67% from a year ago, reflecting ongoing weakness both in price and participation. What makes this moment particularly important is where HBAR is currently quoted. The price may now face levels seen last in October 2024, bringing several months of lows back into possibility.
The deterioration of the structure of Kaavion is clear, and the pressure on purchases has continuously eased. However, one unusual indicator suggests that the decline may be nearing its end. The main question is whether this anomalous indicator can affect the situation now.
The breakdown of the bearish flag signals the risk of trend continuation.
On the 4-hour chart, HBAR has made a clear breakdown of the bearish flag. A bearish flag forms when the price drops sharply, consolidates in a narrow upward or sideways channel, and then drops again. It is a continuation pattern, not a reversal signal.
The price of HBAR briefly dropped below the flag structure near $0.109, and the movement has held without significant recovery.
This confirmation is significant. When the height of the original flagpole is used, the drop calculated from the breakout suggests about a 28% decline from the top of the flag. From current levels, the downside target is positioned around $0.068. However, if a 4-hour candle closes above the lower trend line of the bearish flag, the breakout risks may temporarily weaken.
This level is very close to the bottoms last seen in October–November 2024, so it represents a multi-month bottom risk, not just a short-term dip.
The second confirmation comes from the flow data of the exchanges. The buying pressure has weakened for weeks.
On December 5th, net flows indicated buying the dip when about 4,090,000 HBAR were withdrawn from exchanges. However, this behavior has gradually waned. On December 24th, net flows were only 314,830 HBAR.
This is a decline of over 92% in net buying pressure.
Simply put, buyers have not come in decisively, even though the price has dropped. On the contrary, investments occasionally turned positive, indicating that selling pressure returned quickly after small dips – a reference to panic selling. When the bearish flag breaks and buying pressure collapses simultaneously, the probability of continuation increases significantly.
This explains why the crash has not attracted aggressive dip buyers. The markets do not yet find this area attractive.
One sentiment anomaly suggests that the downside may be overextended.
The only counterforce to the bearish setup lies in sentiment.
The positive social sentiment for HBAR has dropped from its peak (around 76.97) at the end of October to the current approximately 1.62. This is a decline of nearly 98%. This reflects more of a clear indifference than a panic-driven enthusiasm.
Historically, similar local sentiment lows have been associated with short-term rebounds. On November 9th, when sentiment reached a local bottom, HBAR rose from approximately $0.17 to $0.19 in one day, about 12%. On December 1st, the decline in sentiment preceded a rise from $0.13 to $0.14, around 14% in two days.
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This is the anomaly that gives hope.
Context matters a lot, though. Those rebounds occurred when structural selling pressure was lower, and buying flows were still present. Currently, sentiment is collapsing at the same time as the bearish flag has broken and demand has vanished. This makes the signal less reliable.
In weak markets, strong negative sentiment can persist longer than many expect.
What happens next to the HBAR price?
The price of HBAR is at a critical point. The prevailing signs remain bearish: breakdown of the bearish flag, collapsed buying pressure, and establishment below key support levels. As long as the price stays below $0.109, the risk of a drop towards $0.079 and possibly $0.068 (on the 4-hour chart) remains.
The only obstacle to this path is sentiment fatigue. If negative sentiment leads to opportunistic dip buying again, HBAR may see a short-term relief pump. However, without a clear return of buying pressure, this rise is likely to fade unless the price rises back to the $0.155 level, which was the starting point of the selling pressure.
