HBAR price continues to disappoint. The token has fallen by about 26% over the past month and almost 67% on an annual basis. This shows persistent weakness in both price and activity. What makes this moment particularly important is the current trading level. The price could now test levels we last saw in October 2024, which means a new multi-month low.
The chart clearly shows a downward trend and buying pressure has steadily disappeared. However, one particular metric suggests that the decline may be nearly over. The question is whether this exception can really be significant now.
Bear flag breakdown signals risk of trend continuation
On the 4-hour chart, HBAR has completed a classic bear flag pattern. A bear flag occurs when the price sharply drops, briefly corrects upward or sideways, and then falls lower again. This is a continuation pattern and thus not a signal for a reversal.
The HBAR price briefly broke below the flag structure at the $0.109 level and that decline held without a clear rebound.
This confirmation is important. Using the height of the original flagpole as a starting point, the price could drop about 28% from the highest point of the flag. From the current price, this means a potential target in the zone around $0.068. If the 4-hour candle manages to close above the bottom of the bear flag, the risk of further decline may temporarily decrease.
That level is close to the low zones from October-November 2024. Therefore, the chance of a multi-month low is greater than just a short dip.
The second confirmation comes from exchange flow data. Buying pressure has been declining for weeks.
On December 5, net outflows indicated dip buyers: about 4.09 million HBAR was taken off exchanges. Since then, that has decreased significantly. On December 24, the net outflow was only 314,830 HBAR.
That is a decline of more than 92% in buying pressure.
Simply put: even though the price dropped, buyers did not return with conviction. Instead, outflow and inflow fluctuated regularly, which means that selling pressure quickly resurfaced after small declines. This may indicate panic selling. When a bear flag breaks and buying pressure simultaneously diminishes, the likelihood of further decline significantly increases.
This explains why this decline does not attract aggressive dip buyers. The market does not yet see this price level as a buying opportunity.
One sentiment outlier suggests that the downside may be busy.
The only positive signal comes from sentiment.
The positive social sentiment around HBAR has collapsed from almost 76.97 at the end of October to about 1.62 now. This is a decline of nearly 98%. This indicates extreme disinterest, not panic or hype.
Historically, such strong negative local sentiment often led to a short rebound. On November 9, when sentiment reached a local low, HBAR rose from about $0.17 to $0.19 in one session, about 12% profit. On December 1, another sentiment dip preceded a rise from $0.13 to $0.14, an increase of about 14% in two days.
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This is the outlier that gives a bit of hope.
But context is important. Previous recoveries occurred when selling pressure was less intense and there were still buyers. Now sentiment is waning along with a confirmed bear flag break and almost nonexistent demand. This makes it a less reliable signal.
In weak markets, extremely negative sentiment can last longer than many people expect.
What is happening now with the HBAR price
The HBAR price is at a crucial point. The main signals remain bearish: a bear flag break, diminishing buying pressure, and confirmation below key support levels. As long as the price remains below $0.109, the risk of a decline towards $0.079 and possibly $0.068 (depending on the 4-hour chart) persists.
The only thing currently holding back the price path is that sentiment is weary. If negative sentiment leads to dip buyers again, HBAR could show a short rebound. But if buying volume does not clearly return, this rebound will likely stop quickly, unless the price closes above $0.155 again, the starting point of the downward movement.
