HBAR price continues to disappoint. This token has dropped about 26% over the past month and nearly 67% year-over-year. This reflects a persistent bearish trend in both price and participation. The reason why the current moment is even more important is because of the position at which HBAR is trading. The current price is looking toward the range last tested in October 2024, making the possibility of a multi-month low renewal again possible.

The chart decline signal is clear and buying pressure is steadily collapsing. However, one peculiar indicator suggests the possibility of exhaustion in the downtrend. Now, whether that exceptional indicator is meaningful is the key question.

Bear flag decline... trend continuation risk

On the 4-hour chart, HBAR has completed a typical bearish flag breakout pattern. A bearish flag is a pattern where the price sharply drops, consolidates in a narrow upward or sideways range, and then drops again. This is a signal of the continuation of a downtrend, not a reversal.

The HBAR price briefly broke below the flag structure around $0.109, and the downtrend has been maintained without any significant rebound.

This confirmation is important. Applying the height of the initial flagpole, the downward target upon breakout is indicated as a drop of about 28% from the top of the flag. Based on the current market price, the downward target range is forming around $0.068. However, if the 4-hour candle breaks above the bearish flag's lower trend line based on the closing price, the risk of a breakout may weaken for a while.

This price range closely aligns with the last traded low range in October-November 2024. Therefore, this decline carries the risk of updating the lowest price over several months rather than a short-term correction.

The second confirmation signal can be found in the exchange inflow and outflow data. The buying force has weakened over the weeks.

On December 5, the net outflow of about 4.09 million HBAR indicated that there was buying at the lows. However, this trend gradually weakened afterward. As of December 24, the net outflow had plummeted to 314,830 HBAR.

This indicates that net buying pressure has decreased by more than 92%.

Simply put, while prices were declining, buyers did not actively enter. Instead, intermittent inflows increased slightly, leading to quick selling after a small rebound, indicating panic selling. If the bearish flag breaks out and buying pressure collapses, the probability of continued decline sharply increases.

For this reason, aggressive buying at lows has not flowed into the breakout range. The market does not yet find this price range attractive.

Unique sentiment indicator... excessive downtrend?

The only counterargument to the bearish scenario lies in market sentiment.

The positive SNS sentiment index for HBAR has sharply dropped from around 76.97 at the end of October to just 1.62 recently. This represents a nearly 98% decrease, reflecting a state of extreme indifference rather than panic.

In the past, such localized psychological lows have induced short-term rebound rallies. On November 9, when sentiment hit a low, HBAR rose about 12% in a single session from approximately $0.17 to $0.19. Similarly, on December 1, after a preceding decline in sentiment, it rose about 14% from $0.13 to $0.14 in two days.

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This is an exceptional sign of hope.

However, context is important. Previous rebounds occurred when structural selling pressure was weak and buying inflow remained. Currently, a bearish flag breakout and the disappearance of demand are accompanying this, lowering the reliability of this signal.

During a downtrend, extreme negative sentiment can persist much longer than expected.

HBAR price, what’s the next move?

The HBAR price has reached a very important inflection point. The main signal is still bearish. A bearish flag breakout, broken buying force, and trading below key support have been confirmed. As long as the price remains below $0.109, the risk of falling to $0.079 and $0.068 based on the 4-hour chart remains valid.

The only factor hindering this path is psychological fatigue. If negative market sentiment induces low-cost buying once again, HBAR may experience a temporary rebound. However, unless a clear buying force returns, such rebounds will be difficult to sustain. Particularly, if the price does not recover to $0.155, it will remain as the starting point of a downtrend.