Early morning thoughts and analysis of the market during this period $BTC

Recently, I have been unable to share market insights with everyone in a timely manner, mainly due to intensive real trading operations and my own health issues, as I am currently in a recovery phase. Therefore, the updates on the public account have been delayed. After a brief整理 tonight, I bring you the latest market assessments and short-term trading ideas for your reference.

First, let's look at the macro background. Previously, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, but the market response was unusually calm, with almost no significant fluctuations. Historically, the previous two rate hikes led to significant market volatility, but this time the impact was weak, which is clearly illogical. Even if we believe the market has already digested the negative news in advance, it should not be this weak. Given the current fundamentals of the U.S. economy, market performance is also 'abnormal' — it has neither weakened as expected nor shown significant volatility. It should be noted that the yen, as the world's primary funding currency, has seen a large influx of financing dollars into the U.S. stock market, U.S. bonds, and the crypto market. While this type of capital may not withdraw instantly, it ultimately needs to flow back to Japan, leading to a systemic withdrawal.