Author: DaiDai, MSX MaiDian
1. Macroeconomic New Paradigm: Investment Logic in an Era of Uncertainty
1. Introduction: Navigating an Unpredictable Future
The global macroeconomic landscape is undergoing a profound structural transformation. Bob Prince, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater Associates, points out that two core driving forces—the acceleration of 'modern mercantilism' and the 'artificial intelligence revolution'—are reshaping the market landscape. The interaction of these two paradigm shifts has given rise to a new environment filled with 'unpredictable tail events.' This backdrop poses a severe challenge to traditional investment strategies and makes it imperative to strategically adjust investment portfolios to adapt to the future.
2. Core driving force analysis
Based on Bob Prince's discussion, the characteristics and impacts of the two macro forces are as follows:
(1) Acceleration of modern mercantilism
The core feature of 'Modern Mercantilism' is that governments play an increasingly important role in enhancing national wealth and power, prioritizing self-sufficiency and industrial policy. This trend has led to an increasingly complex global geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, where interactions between countries are no longer limited to the economic level but also include more strategic considerations.
(2) Exponential demand from the AI revolution
The development of artificial intelligence technology faces a core contradiction: the marginal improvement in performance requires 'exponential growth' in computing power and capital investment. This dynamic not only places unprecedented demands on related industries such as semiconductors, software, and energy but also means that massive capital expenditures will become key variables driving market growth and differentiation.
3. Bridgewater's response principles
Facing this uncertain new macro paradigm, Prince distilled three core response principles of Bridgewater, which form the foundation of its current investment decision-making:
(1) Diversification
In the context of market positions, especially in the U.S. stock market, reaching historically high concentrations, diversification is the only reliable response to unpredictability. Its goal is to ensure that regardless of any unforeseen events in the future, the investment portfolio will not suffer major damage.
(2) Agility
As the unknown macro factors become clearer, investment strategies must be able to adapt and adjust quickly. Agility means actively responding to newly emerging information and changes in patterns rather than clinging to old judgments.
(3) Healthy degree of paranoia
In a market full of uncertainties, remaining vigilant and avoiding overconfidence is crucial. This means maintaining a healthy skepticism regarding general market expectations, especially those that seem overly optimistic.
Based on the judgment of this new macro paradigm, Bridgewater made profound strategic adjustments to its investment portfolio to better navigate future risks and opportunities.
II. Major Portfolio Shift: Detailed Explanation of Strategic Transition in Q3 2025
1. Introduction: Strategic Intent from Data
The 13F filing for Q3 2025 (as of September 30, 2025) revealed a decisive portfolio rotation by Bridgewater. The data shows that Bridgewater is shifting from the defensive stance of the past few years to a more proactive 'seeking return stance.'
2. Significant reductions and liquidations: Avoiding concentration risk
According to data from Gainify, Moomoo, and Fintel, Bridgewater executed large-scale reductions and liquidations in the third quarter to lower portfolio concentration risk.
(1) Significantly reducing the 'Tech Giants'
Bridgewater significantly reduced exposure to some tech giants, removing over $2 billion in combined positions, primarily targeting:
NVIDIA (NVDA): Reduced by 65.28%, with a reduction of about 4.64 million shares, ending holdings decreased to about 2.47 million shares, and the market value of holdings decreased to about $298 million. (Note: This is one of the largest single reductions of the quarter, showing concerns about the short-term congestion of chip stocks.)
Microsoft (MSFT): Reduced by 36.03%, with a reduction of about 330,000 shares, ending holdings decreased to about 586,000 shares, and the market value of holdings decreased to about $252 million.
Alphabet (GOOGL): Reduced by 52.61%, with a reduction of about 2.32 million shares, ending holdings decreased to about 2.09 million shares, and the market value of holdings decreased to about $346 million.
Meta Platforms (META): Reduced by 48.34%, with a reduction of about 310,000 shares, ending holdings decreased to about 330,000 shares, and the market value of holdings decreased to about $189 million.
This operation indicates that after significant increases and substantial valuation rises of tech giants, Bridgewater chose to actively reduce concentration in crowded trades.
(2) Complete exit from 'gold' and 'emerging markets'
The most striking operation was Bridgewater completely liquidating its position in SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), marking its abandonment of traditional macro hedging tools. At the same time, the fund nearly completely exited emerging markets, reducing its iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) holdings by 93%. This series of operations sends a strong signal: capital is withdrawing from defensive and highly uncertain areas and moving towards markets with clearer fundamentals.
3. Core increases and new positions: Increasing breadth in the U.S. market and selected tech value chains
While significantly reducing holdings, Bridgewater redeployed funds to the U.S. market and specific tech sectors, showing an optimistic assessment of its risk-reward ratio.
(1) Increasing positions in U.S. large-cap index ETFs
Bridgewater invested a huge amount of new capital into iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), significantly increasing its weight.
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV): Increased holdings by about 1.74 million shares (increase of +75%), total holdings reached 4.05 million shares, with a market value of about $2.71 billion.
Note: IVV and SPY have both become structural pillars of its investment portfolio, and this funding injection of over $1.1 billion reflects its renewed emphasis on the breadth of the U.S. market.
(2) Strategic layout in specific tech areas
Unlike the reduction of overvalued tech giants, Bridgewater significantly increased or newly established positions in a group of tech companies with clear long-term fundamentals and relatively reasonable valuations, mainly concentrated in software, payments, and semiconductor supply chains:
Lam Research (LRCX): Increased by about 1.83 million shares (increase of +111%, holdings doubled), ending holdings of about 3.46 million shares, with a market value of about $464 million.
Adobe (ADBE): Increased holdings by about 533,000 shares (increase of +73%), ending holdings of about 1.26 million shares, market value of about $445 million.
Workday (WDAY): Increased by +132%, ending holdings of about 1.04 million shares, with a market value of about $251 million.
Mastercard (MA): Increased by +190%, ending holdings of about 366,000 shares, with a market value of about $208 million.
This indicates that Bridgewater has not abandoned tech stocks but has shifted capital from emotionally driven consumer giants to semiconductor equipment and enterprise software companies that play the role of 'selling shovels' in the AI revolution.
(3) Focusing on newly listed companies
Bridgewater also newly established positions in recently listed platform companies, showing its ongoing exploration of new growth points:
Reddit (RDDT): Newly established position, bought about 617,000 shares, with a market value of about $142 million.
Robinhood (HOOD): Newly established position, bought about 808,000 shares, with a market value of about $98 million.
III. Interpreting the Mystery of Gold: The Game Between Long-term Belief and Tactical Adjustment
1. Introduction: Behind seemingly contradictory decisions
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio has long been a staunch supporter of gold. However, in Q3 2025, Bridgewater completely liquidated its gold ETF holdings. This 'seemingly contradictory' decision is not a denial of long-term beliefs but more likely a tactical adjustment based on the current environment.
2. Dalio's philosophy on gold
Combining information from TradingKey and Motley Fool, Dalio's investment philosophy in gold is rooted in his understanding of macro cycles.
(1) Ultimate safe-haven asset
Dalio believes that gold is a key hedge against currency depreciation and institutional trust decline, being the only asset that does not rely on any counterparty commitment.
(2) Strategic allocation recommendations
He suggested at the Greenwich Economic Forum to increase the gold allocation ratio to 10%–15% during periods of heightened market pressure, stating that zero allocation or low allocation of gold is a 'strategic mistake.'
3. Logical deduction of tactical exits
Combining Gainify's analysis, Bridgewater's logic for clearing gold can be understood from its shift in risk preference.
(1) Shift in risk preference
The removal of gold exposure marks Bridgewater's transition from a defensive value storage tool to a more aggressive equity deployment.
(2) Marginal changes in hedging value
In the current environment, Bridgewater may believe that the hedging value of zero-yield gold is insufficient to cover opportunity costs, while the U.S. stock market and selected tech sectors offer a better risk-reward ratio.
IV. Future Outlook: Seeking Balance Amid Uncertainty
1. Introduction: New Balance in the New Macro Paradigm
Bridgewater's strategy for 2025 is not simply bullish or bearish, but rather adapts to macro turning points by constructing a more resilient portfolio while acknowledging unpredictability.
2. The inherent logic of the strategy
(1) Replacing traditional hedging with breadth
Increasing holdings in the S&P 500 ETF is not only a positive outlook on the U.S. market but also a risk diversification strategy by replacing a single asset (like gold) with market breadth.
(2) Maintaining agility amidst change
Bridgewater chooses tech targets with clearer fundamentals and more reasonable valuations amidst the wave of artificial intelligence to respond to the dynamic process of 'the unknown becoming known.'
(3) Adhering to the 'All Weather' philosophy
The current adjustment is a dynamic practice of Bridgewater's 'All Weather' philosophy under the new macro paradigm, aiming to maintain portfolio balance under different scenarios without sacrificing upside potential for a single defense.
In summary, Bridgewater's investment strategy for 2025 is a proactive evolution: abandoning old balance anchors amid uncertainty and constructing new portfolio resilience through broader diversification and more precise agility.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference and educational purposes only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice.
