The Fed is Almost Certain to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged in January, Probability of Keeping Rates Unchanged Has Reached 84.5%

According to the latest data on 25/12, the market continues to adjust expectations regarding the Fed's rate cuts in early 2026. It seems that the New Year interest rate cut gift will not happen.

🔸 The door for a rate cut in January 2026 is almost closed with the probability of the Fed keeping the current interest rate at 84.5%. Only a mere 15.5% of investors believe that the Fed will ease its policy.

👉 This means the market has accepted the scenario of remaining inactive in the first meeting of the new year.

🔸 This information partly explains why Bitcoin ETF inflows have been negative and Stablecoins have been burned in recent days. When interest rates do not decrease, the USD maintains its value, and pressure on risk assets like Crypto will continue. The Crypto market in early 2026 may not be boosted by macro factors, but must rely on internal stories instead.

What is your view on the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January 2026?

The information in this article is for reference only and is not investment advice. Please read carefully before making any decisions.