As everyone chases after skyrocketing rises and falls, the 'honest person' quietly exchanging currency for dollar interest is silently harvesting the market.
The offshore RMB exchange rate has broken through the 7.0 barrier, returning to the 6 era. Amidst the fluctuations in market sentiment, a set of data reveals the cold logic of wealth: if at the beginning of the year, 7.35 exchange rate was used to convert 7.35 million RMB into 1 million USD, and deposited into a dollar fixed term with an annual interest rate of 4%, today 1.04 million USD is effortlessly earned.
The seemingly calm operations have instead become a stable haven in this year's market, which has seen a slaughter of 'stocks, bonds, exchange rates, and currencies.'
01 The exchange rate breaks 7, a signal of trend reversal
The exchange rate is a barometer of the macro economy. The offshore Renminbi exchange rate breaking 7 and returning to the 6 era marks a significant shift in market expectations.
The high point of 7.35 at the beginning of the year was a psychological defense line for many people, and now this defense line has been broken. It reflects not just a change in numbers but a repricing of capital flows and confidence.
Smart capital always sniffs out the trends ahead of time. Those investors who exchanged Renminbi for US dollars at the beginning of the year seemed to be merely exchanging currency, but in fact, they completed an important asset allocation switch.
From 7.35 to below 7.0, the exchange rate fluctuations alone have generated considerable paper gains, not including the interest income from the US dollar deposits themselves.
02 The calm logic of holding US dollars while waiting for a drop
What is often said in the crypto circle about 'holding US dollars while waiting for a drop' is backed by a complete set of hedging logic. In times of increased macroeconomic uncertainty, holding US dollars or stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC) is not only a tool for hedging against Renminbi exchange rate fluctuations, but also a defensive strategy to avoid the inherent volatility of cryptocurrencies.
Especially in a market environment where 'stocks, bonds, currencies, and cryptocurrencies are all under pressure', cash-like assets have become a scarce hedging choice. Data shows that if you exchanged 1 million US dollars at the beginning of the year and deposited it at a 4% annual interest rate, the total principal and interest would have reached 1.04 million US dollars after one year.
When converted back to Renminbi, even without considering exchange rate fluctuations, the interest income alone has far exceeded the returns of most A-shares and cryptocurrency investments during the same period.
03 The survival rules of the market
The simultaneous pressure on the four markets of stocks, bonds, currencies, and cryptocurrencies is a major feature of the global financial market this year. This rare correlation exposes the limitations of traditional diversification strategies.
When all asset classes decline simultaneously, the true logic of hedging needs to be reconstructed. Holding US dollars or US dollar stablecoins is effective not only because it avoids risks in specific markets but also because it captures the fundamental liquidity demand—in a world of uncertainty, US dollar liquidity itself is a scarce resource.
This round of exchange rate fluctuations reminds us: in extreme markets, cash is not worthless paper waiting to be devalued, but ammunition waiting to strike. The core of holding US dollars 'waiting for a drop' lies in waiting for the opportunity created by the excessive decline of other asset classes.
04 The stable value anchor in the crypto world
The uncertainty of the macro market highlights the deep value of stablecoin protocols in the crypto world. Protocols like Falcon Finance, which focus on synthetic assets and stablecoin innovation, provide a more flexible and decentralized value stabilization solution.
Falcon Finance's USDf synthetic US dollar not only provides functionalities similar to traditional US dollar stablecoins but also offers global investors a stable value tool independent of the traditional banking system through decentralized mechanisms and cross-chain availability.
During periods of extreme exchange rate volatility, the importance of such agreements becomes increasingly apparent. They are not only trading mediums but also a new paradigm for value storage and cross-regional asset allocation.
For global investors, the ability to quickly and cost-effectively transfer value across different fiat currency regions is becoming increasingly important.
05 Investment wisdom for a worry-free holiday
The market is always fluctuating, and the wisdom of investing lies in distinguishing between short-term noise and long-term trends. The 'worry-free holiday' is underpinned by a calm based on deep thinking.
For ordinary investors, three lessons can be learned from this round of exchange rate fluctuations:
First, do not underestimate the strategic value of cash-like assets, especially during periods of high volatility; second, understand the performance logic of different assets in different macro environments; third, maintain flexibility so that one can be prepared in overly pessimistic or optimistic market conditions.
Whether traditional US dollar deposits or crypto stablecoins, they represent a defensive allocation mindset. At the same time, while being defensive, do not forget to look for the next cycle's offensive opportunities—those high-quality assets that have been oversold often bring the highest returns when market sentiment improves.
@Falcon Finance #FalconFinance $FF
