Pancakes and Gold: The Divergence and Game of Safe-Haven Assets

In the global market of 2025, the two popular safe-haven assets, BTC and gold, show significant divergence in their trends, with gold outperforming BTC by an absolute advantage, highlighting the characteristic of 'same attribute, different roles' between the two.

In terms of price performance, gold has increased by over 63% this year, breaking $4000 per ounce in the fourth quarter, setting a historical high; although BTC once broke the six-figure mark, it fell back in the second half of the year, with its annual increase being less than half of that of gold, and the BTC-to-gold ratio dropped from 40 ounces to 20 ounces, a decline of 50%. The difference in capital flows is even more apparent: gold has seen continuous purchases by central banks, with the total gold purchase reaching 254 tons by October, and ETFs increasing their holdings by 397 tons in the first half of the year; the asset management scale of BTC spot ETFs has decreased from $152 billion to $112 billion, with long-term holders selling over 500,000 coins.

The divergence of driving logic is the core reason. Gold has risen against the trend in a high-interest-rate environment, becoming 'portfolio insurance' amidst geopolitical risks and uncertainties, with its correlation to stocks dropping to -0.12; BTC, on the other hand, still shows high-risk asset attributes, suppressed by high real yields and a decline in risk appetite, maintaining a high correlation with U.S. stocks.

Looking ahead, if liquidity easing is implemented in 2026, BTC may regain elasticity; if geopolitical risks intensify, gold's defensiveness will still be highlighted. #比特币与黄金战争 #比特币VS代币化黄金