【Trading Post｜$MERL】

Conclusion:

I am bearish, and quite aggressively so.

The price repeatedly tests 0.48–0.50, but each time fails to break out with significant volume and dense upper shadows, which is a typical distribution structure after a rise.

The 4H level has seen consecutive long upper shadows, indicating that this range has become a clear active selling zone.

The technical analysis is very straightforward:

RSI (4H): High divergence, momentum clearly weakening

MACD (4H): Death cross near the zero line, rebound lacks continuity

EMA: The price has faked breakout of the short-term moving average multiple times, but has never stabilized

Against the backdrop of BTC and ETH synchronously correcting and a decline in market risk appetite,

$MERL this **“only rebounds, does not break through”** trend is itself a breeding ground for bears.

📉 My trading plan is as follows:

Entry range: 0.47 – 0.49 attempt to short in batches

Stop-loss level: above 0.52 (if it stabilizes above, I will admit my mistake)

First take profit: 0.42

Second take profit: around 0.38 (previous low + liquidity zone)

The logic is very simple:

Rebound = provides liquidity to bears, rather than a trend reversal.

Additionally, with the unlocking expectations starting in mid-December, even if there is no immediate sell-off, it is enough to suppress bullish sentiment.

Short-term bets on breakouts have extremely low cost-effectiveness;

Shorting in line with the structure offers a cleaner risk-reward ratio.

But this does not mean I am completely bearish on $MERL.

I am willing to be bearish now because I hope it completes its necessary adjustments.

Only by washing out floating capital and running out of time,

when it resumes its trend later, will it be worth genuinely being bullish and heavily participating.

In this segment, I am on the bearish side;

In the next segment, I do not rule out going long again.

Trading is phase-based,

The story of $MERL is still unfolding.