In the soon-to-pass year 2025, the cryptocurrency market has been turbulent, with a number of god-like figures emerging and some big names falling. This is a trading market where one will fall behind if they do not learn for a single day. Compared to traditional finance, it tests individual learning abilities even more. Looking back on the past year, I have traded quite a few meme coins, experiencing both profits and losses. Although the profits are not substantial, I have accumulated some experience.
The secondary cryptocurrency market is already in a stormy situation, and the primary on-chain environment is even more tumultuous. Navigating a small boat alone in such harsh conditions, experience and judgment are particularly crucial. After repeated contemplation, I now summarize my reflections as follows, to awaken myself and provide reference for others to learn:
In the primary chain market, please try not to buy obvious conspiracy projects, as they will cause you to lose the courage of a diamond hand for a long time. Since I was involved in the early days of the chain, all my participations were conspiracy projects, which could drop by 99% in just one second. My idea was to observe the candlestick chart, and in the early days, when the human meat grinder licked once, I would run away; holding time was almost within 30 seconds, with each profit being 2-3u. Of course, in the end, it was overall profitable, but due to encountering many sharp declines in between, the mentality of a paper hand slowly took root in my mind. For a long time afterwards, even when I knew a token could rise, I still could not control the urge to liquidate in a short time, causing a dilemma of not being able to hold onto the gold dog, and my thighs often suffered.
A high win rate does not mean high profitability; the win-loss ratio is the key. This is also a common pitfall for paper hands: they run at the sight of profit and resist at the sight of loss. In the end, they find that the win rate is getting higher and the capital is getting lower. This situation is caused by a very small or even negative win-loss ratio, leading to a year of chopping wood and a day of burning. One needs to overcome oneself, correct immediately, focus more on the win-loss ratio, and pay less attention to the win rate.
Trends create heroes, while bear markets produce bears. Through learning and observation, I found that skilled traders usually do not operate much throughout the year. When a bull market arrives, like the grand celebration on the BSC chain this year during the National Day, they can spend 80% or more of their day sitting idle. In less than 10 days, they can earn enough profit for a year. When a bear market comes, they have already gone offline to enjoy life. In contrast, some people who sit idle for years do not necessarily show much profitability. When liquidity is exhausted, go out more, touch the real world, and experience life as it is.
Newcomers should not blindly jump in; first, do your research. Opportunities are frequent, but bullets are limited. When first encountering cryptocurrency, one often gets dizzy from a big green line and blindly presses the buy button, immersing in the joy of profit. However, reality is more likely to greet you with a heavy blow, forcing you to cut losses and exit, or even suffer a total loss of the invested amount due to the dealer pulling the rug. In the plaza, there are many painful lessons reminding us to do our research before buying; DYOR is especially important.
Be cautious when following trades in the primary market. Following trades means entrusting your funds to others' management. There are cases where following trades led to significant profits, but more often, it provides ample liquidity for the ones being followed. The lead can sell part of the chips to recover the principal shortly after the following buy raises the price, holding the remaining free chips and waiting for a rise. Even if it goes to zero, they still do not incur losses, which is one reason why the chain’s leads almost consistently profit, while most ordinary users incur losses.
Often reflect, do more vertical comparisons, and less horizontal comparisons. He is strong, let him be strong; a gentle breeze brushes the mountain ridge. During a certain period, I often doubted myself for not being able to profit like others or for not being as strong as others, falling into a state of pessimistic internal conflict. Now looking back, every person is unique; let yourself improve a little every day, and over the years you can also reach the summit.
Life is like an ordinary person, one should have the ambition of a swan. Life is as fragile as paper; one should have an indomitable spirit. In the upcoming New Year, may we both take our dreams as horses and not waste our youth. The world is not yet determined; everything is a dark horse. Whether in web2 or web3, one can achieve their ideal results!