š¦Ā BREAKING FED OUTLOOK: 84% Chance Rates Hold in Jan; First Cut Likely by March
The roadmap for U.S. interest rates is becoming clearer, with major implications for all markets.
š The FedWatch Odds (via CME):
January 2026:Ā 83.9%Ā probability ratesĀ HOLD STEADY. Only a 16.1% chance of a cut.
March 2026:Ā The first cut may arrive.
ā¢Ā 47.7%Ā chance rates areĀ unchangedĀ from today.
ā¢Ā 45.4%Ā chance of aĀ cumulative 25 bps cut.
ā¢Ā 6.9%Ā chance of a more aggressiveĀ 50 bps cut.
Short-Term (Jan):Ā A "higher for longer" pause suggestsĀ continued macro headwindsĀ for risk assets, but removes near-term hike fears.
Catalyst Watch (Mar):Ā March emerges as the key month to watch.Ā A shift toward cuts would be a majorĀ liquidity tailwindĀ for Bitcoin and crypto.
Market Narrative:Ā This data supports the "soft landing" thesisācontrolled disinflation without an immediate recession. Historically positive for crypto in the mid-term.
The Fed is now in a holding pattern, and the market is pricing in patience before the pivot.
