Cardano price has risen about 13% since the bottom on December 25. It has now moved into a breakout zone within a falling wedge structure. ADA is still down nearly 10% this month, but this week is not just about a temporary rise.
Three signals now indicate that the trend may be preparing for a reversal if the price confirms the breakout.
Falling wedge is now finding a triggering factor for reversal.
The falling wedge formation has pushed the price lower since early November. ADA tested the upper trend of the wedge near $0.69. A daily close above this line opens up a potential 79% upside towards the same $0.69 level. This target comes from measuring the vertical distance between the lowest swing point touching the trendline inside the wedge and the highest swing point inside the wedge, and then projecting it upwards from the breakout point.
There could be an ADA price prediction if the breakout occurs.
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RSI, or Relative Strength Index, which measures momentum and identifies overbought or oversold levels, supports that idea.
Between December 1 and December 25, ADA set a lower low. In the same period, RSI set a higher low. This is a bullish divergence. It shows that sellers lost strength even as prices reached new lows.
This divergence triggered the current rise of 12.8%. If ADA breaks above $0.38, the RSI divergence could act as a trend reversal signal, not just a bullish signal.
Whales are accumulating and activity among coins is declining.
Whale wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA have increased their holdings as breakout signals emerged. On December 26, they held 3.72 billion ADA. This has increased to 3.83 billion ADA, an increase of nearly $41 million.
The increase started the day after the RSI divergence flashed, continuing as the price moved towards wedge resistance. This timing is crucial, as whales often accumulate before trend reversals, not after.
Mint activity, measured by spent coins age band, which shows how much of the supply is moving on-chain from younger and older wallets, has fallen sharply. On December 27, this was around 149.43 million ADA. It has since fallen to 116.16 million ADA, a decrease of 22%.
Lower mint activity means fewer older coins are returning to the market. This reduces selling pressure. When whale purchases increase while mint activity decreases, it creates a supportive base for breakout. These two signals align with the setup from the wedge structure and RSI.
Cardano price levels determine if $0.69 is possible.
ADA is trading near $0.38. A daily close above $0.38 confirms the breakout from the wedge. If this occurs, the structure opens up for a move towards $0.42. Regaining $0.47 is particularly important, as ADA failed to recover to that level on November 17 and again on December 9–10.
Returning to $0.47 will signal a change in trend structure. Above $0.51 and $0.55, momentum increases, making the path towards the $0.69 forecast realistic.
If ADA loses $0.34, the descending wedge remains active, but the chance of a breakout weakens.
Right now, ADA is in its most critical test in over a month. The wedge and RSI suggest a reversal. Whale wallets are buying. Coin activity is declining. But without a confirmed breakout above $0.38 and strength towards $0.47, these signals do not create a clear trend.
