🚨ODDS OF A US BANK FAILURE BY JAN 31 SUDDENLY JUMPED TO 71% ON POLYMARKET.
Here’s what actually happened👇
🔹The market is betting on any US bank failure, not a “systemically important bank.”
🔹Volume was tiny. In thin markets, a rumor + a few trades can move odds fast
🔹Claims that a systemically important bank collapsed remain unconfirmed
🔹No new entry has appeared on the FDIC Failed Bank List
🔹If a major US bank had truly failed, it wouldn’t surface first via anonymous posts
👀The spike looks rumor-driven, amplified by volatility in other markets and social media reflexes.
Prediction markets price sentiment and positioning, not verified facts.
👉Big difference.
