XRP is trading around $1.86. This represents a decrease of about 2% over the last 24 hours and nearly a 15% drop over the past month. The XRP price remains within a bearish channel that still has a 41% risk of decline. If key support levels break, a sharp drop could be possible.
The reason this situation is unique is that several groups of buyers have finally started to enter the market. Long-term holders are buying again, and short-term holders are also increasing their holdings. However, one group remains uncertain. This conflict explains why the chart maintains a bearish outlook.
Return of long-term holders... bearish channel continues
XRP's price has been moving within a descending channel since the beginning of October. Each time there was a rebound, it faced resistance at the upper trend line. According to this pattern, an additional 41% decline is expected from the point of exit. Recently, XRP has been trading closer to the upper trend line, but some buying pressure has been confirmed in on-chain data.
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Long-term holders have recently changed their trading patterns through the hodler net position change indicator.
After continuing net selling for about three weeks, the flow turned in December. From December 3 to December 26, the XRP hodler indicator showed negative net position changes daily. However, on December 27, long-term holders purchased an additional 9.03 million XRP. By December 29, purchases increased to 15.9 million XRP. The buying volume increased by about 76% in just 48 hours.
Thanks to this buying pressure, XRP is holding near the upper trend line of the descending channel. However, it has not yet succeeded in breaking out to the upside.
Short-term buying pressure influx... whales sell again
Short-term holders (1-3 months) increased from 9.58% of the total supply on November 29 to 12.32% on December 29. This figure can be verified through the HODL Waves indicator, which generally categorizes groups based on holding periods.
This group typically leads a rapid rise after a sharp decline. However, they have the characteristic of being the first to exit when price volatility expands. Their buying pressure serves as a defense against declines, but if the rebound is weak, it can act as additional selling pressure.
Whale investors are moving in the opposite direction. This is interpreted as a result of increased buying pressure from short-term holders and the weakening of price patterns.
The group of whales holding between 100 million to 1 billion XRP reduced their holdings from 8.23 billion to 8.13 billion on December 28. This amounts to a sale of about 100 million XRP, worth approximately $186 million.
The group holding between 1 million to 10 million XRP also decreased from 3.58 billion to 3.55 billion. Selling pressure of about 30 million XRP, worth approximately $55 million, has been observed.
The selling by whales and the influx of two layers of holders are creating friction. As a result, clear breakout attempts are repeatedly blocked, and the price fails to exceed resistance, returning to an intermediate range. If short-term holders sell during a rebound, the reduction of whale positions can further accelerate the decline.
XRP, price range determining the next flow
The market is at a critical juncture. XRP's price is still staying within the channel. To avoid an early decline, it must maintain above $1.79. If this range is held and long-term holders buy more, a rebound to $1.98 is anticipated. If the daily closing price exceeds $1.98, the bearish structure will neutralize, opening up a path to rise to $2.28. Strong upward momentum can be expected at this point.
However, the risks are clear.
If it cannot hold $1.79, the next support levels for XRP are $1.64 and $1.48. If it falls below $1.48, the channel will collapse, exposing it to a 41% decline risk down to $1.27 and below.
Currently, the buying pressure from holders in general has not changed the structure. It is only slowing the rate of decline. For the situation to change, whales need to return. Until then, every rebound within the channel will be accompanied by selling pressure.