Zcash (ZEC) is one of the few coins that has shown a clear trend this year. The token price has remained stable over the past 24 hours, but it has risen nearly 30% over the last 7 days, and the increase over the past 3 months is nearly 570%. Currently, the price of Zcash is touching the bullish channel resistance line that has blocked all breakout attempts since early December.

If it rises once more this time, the situation could change. The structure is bullish, but there is still one confirmation signal left between Zcash and the long-standing challenge towards $1,000.

Zcash is testing the rising channel... one confirmation needed.

Zcash is trading near the upper boundary of the rising channel. This channel has led the upward trend since early December. The price has maintained re-entry points each time, but buyers need to clearly break above the upper trend line to open higher targets.

The most lacking part is confirming the capital flow.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures buying intensity using price and trading volume, slightly declined during the price increase between December 27 and 31. This indicates a weak bearish divergence. The price continues to rise while capital inflow has decreased, showing that confidence is lagging.

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CMF is still being maintained steadily above the zero line. However, this indicator must break above its trend line and create a high above 0.13 to confirm bullishness. If this is achieved, the Zcash price may move accordingly. If large buyers return, the CMF breakout is likely to be facilitated. However, looking at the next indicators, they might already show signs of returning.

Whale accumulation... smart money positions expanding.

The first support signal is appearing in the spot market movements.

Whales on the Solana chain have increased their balance by 3.53% over the past 24 hours, raising it to a total of 10,587 ZEC. This is an increase of about 361 ZEC, equivalent to approximately $191,000 based on spot prices.

Mega whales (top 100 wallets) also increased by 1%, bringing their holdings to 36,323 ZEC. This also represents an increase of about 360 ZEC, equivalent to about $190,000. Whales may not be actively buying yet, but they are no longer absent from the market. This suggests that accumulation is starting again.

The exchange balances support this perspective. The amount of ZEC on exchanges has slightly decreased over the past day, indicating that accumulation continues and selling liquidity is decreasing. While the scale is small, directionality is important.

The derivatives market shows the same outlook. Smart money positions (non-retail accounts) have increased their net long positions by 22.48%. The largest derivatives traders are still overall net short, but the growth rate of long positions is much faster than that of short positions (745% increase). A surge in long positions near resistance is rare when a breakout is expected.

This phenomenon is important as whales often play a role in pulling up the CMF. If whale capital inflow continues, the CMF trend line may be broken, which becomes a signal to confirm the channel breakout.

Is Zcash likely to break $1000?

ZEC is trading below the first trigger at $546. If it closes above this level, the door opens to $594. This range is where Zcash's price war will unfold.

If it breaks $594 with CMF confirmation, a maximum upward target of 84% is projected based on the rising channel pattern, potentially driving Zcash to $831 or higher. This is the actual launch pad. Beyond this point, a secondary Fibonacci extension path sets an additional upward target of $1,007, which is about a 89% increase from the current level.

The invalidation point is also important. Losing $509 weakens the upward trend. Falling below $479 switches the structure to neutral. If Zcash loses $437, the channel completely collapses, and the bullish scenario becomes invalid.

If ZEC maintains above $479, the channel remains valid. If it breaks through $594 and the CMF indicator supports it, the breakout flow will continue.