The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has once again raised the leverage ratio, clearly determined to keep the leverage of precious metals within a reasonable range, but the overall trend of non-ferrous metals will not change due to short-term suppression.
In the past month, global silver ETFs have increased their holdings by 1,000 tons, and the world's largest physical silver ETF has reached a position of 16,390 tons.
On the surface, the LBMA's spot inventory is about 6,000 tons, but in reality, it is almost empty (the silver ETFs are locked), while COMEX's inventory continues to be in a state of reluctance to sell.
The latest data shows that the 1-year forward swap rate for silver is -7.09%, indicating that the market is willing to bear an interest cost of 7% to obtain physical silver 12 months later.
If this isn't enough to attract attention, then the interbank silver leasing rate has surged to an annualized 39%, whereas normally, the interbank silver leasing rate is only between 0.35% and 0.5%.
Many people like to compare the current situation with the example of the Hunt brothers in the 1980s, but the events of the Hunt brothers were over 40 years ago, and the context has changed dramatically.
It is worth noting that China's silver export control will officially take effect tomorrow, January 1, and while exchanges can clear leverage, they cannot change the fundamentals of supply and demand. The logic is very simple: when there is a supply-demand gap, and the market cannot exchange for physical goods, it can only achieve balance through price increases.
In the upcoming 26 years, the fluctuations of non-ferrous metals in January will not be small, but if you understand the logic behind it, you will know how to respond.
As inflation expectations rise, liquidity eases, and the dollar faces its worst year in nearly a decade, competition between the yen and the euro is also intensifying, making gold and non-ferrous metals, especially industrial materials like copper and silver, the winners in the market.
This year is a good year, and next year will be too. Looking forward to seeing you next year!
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