Ethereum will end 2025 around $2,970 after a messy quarter. The market is divided. Some analysts expect the next growth cycle to begin. Others warn that the structure is still uncertain or mixed.

The truth lies in the middle. The graph shows pressure, the seasonal pattern is unstable and on-chain movements show early support, but not yet conviction.

The situation towards 2026 is not clear. The question is simple: Is Ethereum preparing for recovery, or is there another decline coming?

Bearish price structure starts with historical volatility.

On the 3-day chart, ETH moves within an ascending channel that resembles a bear flag. If Ethereum drops below this structure, the measured move is activated. Confirming this technically means a possible decline of about 44% from the breakout level downwards.

Note: the risk of a breakout downwards becomes much smaller if Ethereum continues to move within the channel for a while.

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However, seasonal influences make it more difficult. January used to be strong for Ethereum, with a long-term average of +33%, but last January was disappointing. January 2025 started with a decline and led to four consecutive red months. If the flag breaks down, the seasonal effect that typically starts the new year may fall away again.

The bearish risk along with a historically volatile period does not align well with experts' predictions that Ethereum could reach somewhere between $7,000 and $9,000 in 2026. At least not yet.

This weakness aligns with what Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, told BeInCrypto about expectations of $9,000 in 2026:

“Capital must stop leaving Ethereum, real usage must grow beyond the current pilots, and supply must remain locked up longer,” he indicates.

He also stated that the current climate does not yet allow for a breakout:

“We view the current picture as mixed,” he added.

So the chart shows risk. Seasonal influences point to uncertainty. The analyst's outlook suggests a potentially slow, cautious recovery determined by external factors. Such improvements may indeed be visible on-chain, but only weakly.

On-chain flows show hope, but not yet conviction.

Some on-chain signals argue against a full breakout downwards.

Long-term holders have finally become buyers again. The Hodler Net Position Change metric (which shows wallet flows of long-term investors) turned positive on December 26 for the first time since July, and remained above zero for a few days thereafter. This shows that patient capital is stepping in at lower levels, but is still cautious.

Now that the Ethereum staking entry queue is larger than the exit queue, these Hodler purchases may be stuck. Ryan Lee also mentioned this as a condition for a higher ETH price.

Ryan also mentions other details:

“More than 740,000 ETH is queued to stake, while about half of that wants to exit. Nearly 30% of the total ETH supply is already staked,” he emphasized.

This indicates accumulation and the intention to lock in supply, but the scale is not yet large enough to force a trend reversal. This behavior mainly shows interest, not clear leadership.

Whales have also returned. After a drop to about 100,01 million ETH outside exchanges at the end of November, the supply has risen again to 101,21 million ETH on December 31. That $3.6 billion in buildup is significant. However, the number is still below the peak of 101,90 million in early November. Only if that level is broken will whale demand be decisive instead of merely supportive.

ETF inflows remain the biggest pain point for the bullish narrative. Spot ETH ETFs together saw about $1.97 billion in outflows as both November and December ended negatively.

Ryan is clear here and believes that the ETF shortage is a major limiting factor for price movements:

‘At this moment, large capital is leaving the ecosystem. This therefore limits the upward potential of the price.’

The on-chain situation shows improvement, but without conviction. It resembles the early formation of a bottom, but not yet a real trend reversal.

2026 roadmap depends on crucial Ethereum price levels.

Here, Ryan's chart and framework come together.

ETH needs to stay above $2,760 to maintain the flag structure. If that level is lost, the structure weakens and $2,650 and $2,400 come into view. A further decline towards $2,140 and $1,780 confirms a breakout downwards. If the bear flag pattern fully plays out, the price could drop towards $1,320, which aligns with a drop of 44% from the breakout point.

For a bullish reversal, the price must break through $3,470 to challenge the upside. Above $3,670, the structure reverses. However, the real breakout upwards only happens when ETH regains $4,770 — the point where the flagpole began and the level that restarts the trend.

Only above that zone are targets like $7,000 to $9,000 logical, but even then Ryan sees this increase as dependent on further conditions:

‘That’s why our base expectation is a slow, condition-dependent recovery. The price may rise, but it will likely be gradual,’ he believes.

He also explains who reacts first when an easing of macroeconomic policy (expectation of rate cuts) improves liquidity:

‘Bitcoin will likely react first. Ethereum will follow shortly after, once staking takes precedence, the volumes of tokenized assets grow, and ETF flows stabilize,’ he said.

If liquidity improves in 2026, Bitcoin will likely lead. Ethereum's price will only follow if ETF outflows stop, whale supply breaks the high of November, and demand for staking continues through ongoing additions from hodlers.

Until those conditions are met, the trend remains neutral to bearish.