Close out 2025 with Ethereum near $2,970 after a turbulent quarter. The market is divided. Some analysts expect a new growth cycle to begin. Others warn that the structure remains uncertain or mixed.
The truth lies in the middle. The chart indicates pressure, and seasonal performance records fluctuations, with flows on the series showing preliminary support without conviction.
Entering 2026 with an unclear arrangement. The question lies in how ready Ethereum is to recover or if it is gearing up for another drop?
A downward price structure meets a historically volatile beginning.
On the three-day chart, ETH trades within an upward channel that resembles a bear flag. A break below this structure triggers the calculated movement. If confirmed, technical forecasts indicate a drop of about 44% from the breakdown levels.
Note: The risk of a breakdown significantly decreases if Ethereum continues to move within the channel for some time.
Would you like more token analyses like this? Subscribe to the daily cryptocurrency newsletter from editor Harsh Notaria here.
Seasonality complicates matters further. January has historically been good for Ethereum, with a long-term average of about +33%, but last January was not good. January 2025 opened with a drop and led to four consecutive red months. If a flag breakdown occurs, the seasonal momentum that often starts a new year may fail.
Increase the bearish risk with a historically volatile phase, and this does not align with expert expectations for Ethereum to reach any value between $7,000 and $9,000 in 2026. At least not yet.
This matches the weakness of what Ryan Li, senior analyst at Bitget, said when BeInCrypto asked him about the price prediction reaching $9,000 in 2026:
Ryan Li mentioned that capital must stop leaving Ethereum, real usage must grow beyond today's current experiments, and supply must remain locked for longer periods.
He also clarified that the current environment does not yet support breakout expectations:
Ryan Li added that we see the current picture as mixed.
The chart shows risk, seasonality presents uncertainty, and the analyst's view indicates a slow recovery, conditional and externally reliant. These improvements may appear on-chain, but only faintly.
On-chain flows show hope, but not conviction yet.
Some signals on-chain indicate opposition to a complete collapse.
Long-term holders have finally returned to become buyers again. The net hodler position change metric (which shows the flows of long-term investor wallets) turned positive on December 26 for the first time since July and remained positive for several days. This signal indicates the emergence of patient capital at lower levels, but with caution.
With the staking entry queue in Ethereum surpassing the exit path, it may be possible that the purchases from hodlers will end up being locked. Ryan Li indicated that this is a prerequisite for ETH's price movement upward.
Ryan adds other details as well:
Ryan Li highlighted that more than 740k ETH are waiting to enter staking, while only about half of that amount is queued to exit. Approximately 30% of the total ETH supply has already been staked.
This indicates a buildup and intention to lock supply, but the volume so far is insufficient to enforce a trend reversal. This behavior reflects interest rather than leadership.
Whales have also returned according to BeInCrypto. After the amount held off exchanges dropped to about 100,010,000 ETH at the end of November, the supply rose to 101,210,000 ETH by December 31. This accumulation of $3.6 billion is significant. However, the number remains below the peak of 101,900,000 from early November. Until this peak is surpassed, whale demand remains supportive rather than critical.
ETF flows continue to be the biggest gap in bullish arguments. ETH spot funds recorded about $1.97 billion in outflows as November and December ended in the negative territory.
Ryan clearly stated here and considered that the ETF gap is a significant factor restraining price movements:
Ryan mentioned that currently, large capital is leaving the ecosystem, limiting price potential.
The story on-chain suggests improvement without conviction. It appears as an early bottom build, not a change in the pattern.
The roadmap for 2026 relies on key Ethereum price levels.
Here the chart intersects with Ryan's framework.
ETH needs to stay above $2,760 to maintain the flag structure. Losing this level weakens the structure and reveals $2,650 and $2,400. Any deeper move toward $2,140 and $1,780 confirms the breakdown. If the bearish flag pattern completes, the pattern expects a drop toward $1,320, which aligns with a 44% calculation from the breakdown point.
To achieve a bullish reversal, the price must break above $3,470 to challenge the upper limit. Any move above $3,670 flips the structure. However, a true breakout to the upside does not occur until ETH regains $4,770 — the point at which the flag started and the level that resets the pattern.
He noted that targets like $7,000 to $9,000 are structurally only sensible above that area, and even there, Ryan sees the movement as conditional:
Ryan believes that this is why our fundamental case is a slow recovery dependent on conditions. The price could rise, but it is more likely to do so gradually.
It also clarifies who leads first if easing monetary policy (expectations of rate cuts) improves liquidity:
Ryan stated that Bitcoin is likely to react first. Ether follows shortly thereafter, once staking becomes predominant, asset volumes increase, and ETF flows balance.
If liquidity improves in 2026, Bitcoin is likely to lead the movement. The price of Ether will only follow when ETF flows stop, the whale supply breaks above November's peak, and staking orders become sustainable, driven by continued hodler additions.
Keep the trend neutral to bearish until those conditions align.
