Solana has made a modest attempt at a rise after a longer period of weakness, supported by increasing activity on the blockchain. Increased network usage has provided better results, which has helped stabilize the price.
Although SOL is still under pressure, increasing transaction volume may give the altcoin the opportunity for a short-term rise if demand is maintained.
Solana puts CEXs in the shade
Solana's results in 2025 have surpassed several centralized exchanges in terms of trading volume. According to Artemis researcher ZJ, activity on decentralized exchanges on Solana has reached $ 1.6 trillion this year. This places Solana in second place overall, only behind Binance, which has had $ 7.2 trillion in volume.
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The data highlights rapid growth in on-chain trading. Solana has surpassed Bybit, Coinbase Global, and Bitget in total volume. ZJ noted on X that Solana was only fifth among the largest exchanges just a year ago.
“Just a year ago, Solana was ranked 5th among the largest CEXs. Now in 2025, it is ranked 2nd – only behind Binance, having surpassed Bybit. With propAMMs and CLOBs as key growth drivers for Solana in recent months, it is hard not to be bullish looking towards 2026 (sic),” noted ZJ.
Solana investors hold the token down
Despite strong volume figures, valuation indicators give reason for caution. Solana's ratio of network value to transactions has steadily increased and is now at its highest level in seven months. Historically, rising NVT levels signal bearish risk as market value grows faster than actual transaction demand.
This divergence suggests that hype may exceed actual economic activity. When network value increases without corresponding user growth, it often leads to corrections in prices. High NVT levels tend to precede bearish turns, putting pressure on Sol's attempts for short-term gains.
Long-term holders' behavior counterbalances the bearish signals. The HODLer net position shows a clear change in the last week. After nearly four months of distribution, long-term holders have returned to accumulation.
This transition is important because long-term holders often stabilize prices in volatile periods. Their renewed accumulation expresses confidence in Solana's long-term prospects. This support can help dampen selling pressure and limit downside risk even if short-term indicators are mixed.
Solana's price is trading near $126 at the time of writing and faces resistance at this level. Even with a recent stabilization, SOL is set to end 2025 with a decline of around 33%. This backdrop makes the current rise appear as a correction rather than a new direction.
In the short term, Solana may test resistance near $130 if support from long-term holders persists. Without stronger crypto inflow from broader investor groups, the upside may remain limited. Consolidation below $126 seems likely if momentum weakens.
Downside risk is still present. If Solana fails to hold the support level at $123, SOL could fall towards $118. Such a development would weaken the bullish scenario and reinforce a broader bearish structure until stronger demand returns.