Written on 2026-01-01: 2025 is the year of 'full financialization of crypto assets' - regulation begins to be enacted, ETFs move towards mass production, on-chain finance (RWA/DeFi) increasingly resembles the 'new trading layer' of traditional markets, while security incidents and macro shocks push 'risk management' to the forefront.
A table overview first (9 items)
Time (2025) Event One sentence to capture the key point
February 21st Bybit encountered about 1.5 billion dollars theft National-level hackers turned 'exchange security' into a geopolitical issue
May 7th Ethereum Pectra upgrade launched Ethereum continues to bet on a route of 'greater usability + greater scalability'
June 17 → July 18, the US (GENIUS Act) stablecoin bill passed and signed, marking the first time stablecoins gained a systematic federal framework in the US.
September 18 (critical juncture) SEC launches new listing rules for spot crypto ETFs, turning 'one by one approval' into 'bulk listing by rules'
On October 6, Bitcoin surged to a new high (historical high > 125,000 USD range), driven by institutions and policy expectations during the 'topping moment'
October 10–11, the largest liquidation waterfall in history (>19 billion USD) leverages + macro news shattered bull market sentiment within hours
10–12 months Bitcoin turns annual pullback: first annual decline (since 2022) BTC increasingly resembles 'macroeconomic risk assets', rather than an independent market.
10–12 months RWA/tokenization enters institutional scale: BUIDL assets surpass 2 billion USD, 'on-chain government bond yields' become a replicable product paradigm
October–November: Europe discusses 'Euro stablecoin' and MiCA risk boundaries, with stablecoins starting to be used as tools for 'currency competition/financial sovereignty'.
1) February: Bybit approximately 1.5 billion USD stolen—security enters 'national-level confrontation' era
What happened
On February 21, Bybit disclosed that its Ethereum wallet was attacked, approximately 1.5 billion USD assets were transferred; subsequently, multiple law enforcement/research institutions pointed to hacker organizations related to North Korea.
Why it's important
Scale refreshes history: these events are no longer 'single-point accidents', but 'systemic shocks' that can change market risk preferences and regulatory attitudes.
Attack methods professionalized: not just vulnerabilities, but more commonly social engineering, supply chain, signature/permission chain vulnerabilities, etc.
Contagion effect: exchanges, custody, wallet signature strategies, risk control, and insurance systems are forced to align with bank-level standards.
Inspiration for 2026
Exchange users: prioritize placing large assets in more controllable custody/cold storage; view 'withdrawal peaks' as liquidity stress tests.
Project parties/institutions: treat permission management, signature strategies, and emergency drills as 'core product capabilities', not as compliance appendices.
2) May: Ethereum Pectra goes live—'more user-friendly accounts + stronger network capabilities'
What happened
On May 7, Ethereum advanced Pectra as an important network upgrade for the next stage.
Why it's important
User experience-oriented: continue iterating around account abstraction, trading experience, developer toolchains, etc., making 'on-chain operations as smooth as apps'.
Scalability/cost: continued investment in rollups and data availability, providing L2 with lower costs and more stable space.
Ecosystem signal: Ethereum's competitiveness relies no longer solely on 'most decentralized', but rather on a comprehensive assessment of 'performance, cost, experience, and compliance friendliness'.
Inspiration for 2026
'L2 + account abstraction + compliance entry' will continue to be the explosive combination for applications;
The narrative of ETH is more like 'global settlement layer + financial infrastructure', rather than simply 'public chain coin'.
3) June–July: US stablecoin legislation implemented (GENIUS Act)—stablecoins transition from 'gray channels' to 'public infrastructure'.
What happened
On June 17, the US Senate passed the bill establishing a regulatory framework for USD stablecoins; on July 17, the House passed it and sent it to the President; on July 18, the President signed it into law.
Why it's important
First clear framework at the federal level: forming a more explicit institutional arrangement for 'reserve assets, compliance obligations, and issuing entities'.
Payments and settlements accelerate: stablecoins are starting to be used by mainstream finance as 'cross-border, 24/7, programmable' payment/settlement tracks.
Industry route changes: exchanges, payment companies, banks, and tech companies will create new product combinations (wallets, payments, settlements, yield cash management) around stablecoins.
Inspiration for 2026
Stablecoins enter 'scale competition': whoever obtains compliance licenses and channels may capture network effects.
'Stablecoins + government bond yields + institutional custody' will become a standardized product stack.
4) September: SEC spot crypto ETF listing rules—'approval mode' begins to operate like 'listing rules'.
What happened
On September 18, the SEC passed new listing standards, significantly lowering the threshold for case-by-case review of spot crypto ETFs, shifting market expectations from 'individual assets' to 'multiple assets in parallel'.
Why it's important
Capital entry becomes more institutionalized: ETFs serve as the 'default channel' for traditional capital, clear rules mean replicable product supply.
Asset selection logic changes: assets included in ETF discussions will place greater emphasis on liquidity, transparency, market manipulation risks, and compliance narratives.
Competition landscape reshaped: institutional issuers, exchanges, market makers, and custodians will form new industrial chains and bargaining structures.
Inspiration for 2026
'Spot + staking yields + indexing' will become the main battlefield for the next round of product innovation;
But ETF does not equate to 'risk disappearing', it merely packages risk in a more familiar format.
5) October 6: Bitcoin refreshes historical high—narrative shifts from 'halving cycle' to 'institutional funds + policy expectations'
What happened
In early October, Bitcoin price broke historical high, reaching above the 125,000 USD range.
Why it's important
Institutional pricing becomes stronger: the impact of capital flow, policy expectations, and macro risk appetite on BTC is closer to that of US stocks.
Changes in market structure: increased weight of derivatives and leverage make it easier for the market to exhibit 'sharp rises and falls' and cascading liquidations.
Narrative shift: gradually transitioning from 'pure crypto-native cycle' to 'part of global asset allocation'.
6) October 10–11: the largest liquidation in history (>19 billion USD)—a macro thunder, all leverage exploded
What happened
Around October 10–11, stimulated by macro news such as tariffs and export controls, the crypto market experienced a chain of declines and forced liquidations, accumulating liquidation amounts exceeding 19 billion USD (a record).
Why it's important
'Macro–crypto' link confirmed: BTC increasingly resembles a risk asset, and macro policy shocks will directly penetrate into on-chain and exchange positions.
Leverage is an amplifier: forced liquidations turn 'seemingly reasonable pullbacks' into 'non-linear collapses'.
Risk management paradigm upgrade: options hedging, position layering, liquidity management transition from 'professional player skills' to 'survival skills'.
Inspiration for 2026
In any 'structural bull market', one must assume there will be a 'leverage liquidation day';
You are not fighting the market, but battling the market structure (leverage, liquidity, risk control rules).
7) Throughout the year: Bitcoin recorded an annual pullback by year-end—'the cost of risk assetization'
What happened
Although a new high was reached in October, Bitcoin turned to an annual decline by year-end (the first annual pullback since 2022).
Why it's important
BTC's 'macroeconomic sensitivity' is higher: when policy and liquidity marginal changes occur, BTC's volatility is no longer 'self-contained'.
Correlation rises: the linkage with traditional risk assets strengthens, indicating a phase where 'diversification' effects weaken.
Changes in investor structure: under the dominance of institutions and derivatives, volatility patterns will resemble more mature markets (but with greater amplitude).
8) RWA/tokenization: from concept to scale—BUIDL surpasses 2 billion USD, on-chain dividends exceed 100 million USD
What happened
By December, BlackRock's tokenized liquidity fund BUIDL asset scale surpassed 2 billion USD, distributing over 100 million USD in returns to investors; meanwhile, the industry also saw regulatory and investor protection controversies regarding 'tokenized stocks'.
Why it's important
Product paradigm established: using blockchain to support 'cash management/government bond yields' = the most essential assets in traditional finance, moved on-chain.
Driven by institutions rather than DeFi's counterattack: more like banks/asset management using blockchain for 'faster settlement, better backend', rather than completely eliminating intermediaries.
Clarifying risk boundaries: tokenized stocks may lack traditional shareholder rights and protections, raising regulatory concerns—'tradable ≠ equivalent securities rights'.
Inspiration for 2026
The mainline of RWA is not 'cooler', but 'more cost-effective, faster, and more compliant';
Future growth points include: tokenized cash management → tokenized bills/funds → more complex capital market products.
9) Europe: Euro stablecoin and MiCA risk discussions—stablecoins are starting to be viewed as 'currency sovereignty' issues.
What happened
In the second half of 2025, Eurozone finance ministers discussed how to promote the issuance of Euro stablecoins; European regulators also discussed cross-border issuance models for stablecoins, liquidity, and financial stability risks, emphasizing the boundaries and clarification needs of the MiCA framework.
Why it's important
Stablecoins are carriers of 'USD influence': the larger the scale of USD stablecoins, the more directly they challenge financial sovereignty in other currency zones.
Balancing regulation and innovation: Europe needs to guard against risks while also fearing that the 'payment and settlement track' will be locked in by USD stablecoins.
Global divisions may deepen: differences in rules across regulatory zones regarding stablecoins, custody, KYC, and cross-border flows may cause market fragmentation.
In 2025, the year can be viewed through 3 main lines
Regulation shifts from 'verbal' to 'law': stablecoin bill + ETF listing rules push the industry from gray areas toward institutionalization.
BTC fully enters the macro asset track: both new highs and crashes are driven by policy and liquidity, with leverage causing non-linear volatility.
On-chain finance is being 'adopted by institutions': RWA/tokenization is not replacing banks, but making banks/asset management more efficient.
Standing in 2026: 6 variables you should pay attention to
Stablecoin penetration rate: who will scale in payments, cross-border, exchange settlements, and on-chain yield products?
ETF expansion speed: which assets enter mainstream capital pools? How do rules iterate?
Security 'arms race': will exchanges/custodians/wallets see 'bank-level insurance + mandatory standards' emerge?
The next stop for RWA: after government bonds, how do compliance paths for bills, funds, and credit assets proceed?
DeFi compliance: how decentralized trading platforms can enter the US/main regulatory areas?
Macroeconomic shocks and leverage cycles: where will the next 'liquidation day' come from? Tariffs, interest rates, dollar liquidity?
Finally:
Happy New Year! Wishing everyone in 2026 to go with the flow in the crypto space, avoiding pitfalls, seizing opportunities, maintaining stable positions, steady minds, and more stable operations; may returns be abundant and wealth flow in!
Reference sources (by event)
Reuters: Bybit theft disclosure (2025-02-21), FBI attribution (2025-02-27), etc.
Consensys / related industry announcement: Ethereum Pectra upgrade timing and explanation (2025-05-07)
Reuters: US stablecoin bill passed by Senate (2025-06-17), passed by House (2025-07-17), signed by President (2025-07-18)
Reuters: SEC spot crypto ETF listing rules (2025-09-18) and related ETF progress (2025-10–11)
Reuters: Bitcoin refreshes new high report (2025-10-06), year-end pullback and liquidation data (2025-12)
CoinDesk: BlackRock BUIDL asset scale and on-chain dividend milestone (2025-12-30)
Reuters: Controversy over investor protection for tokenized stocks (2025-10-08) and comments on tokenization trends (2025-12-30)
Reuters: Eurozone discussions on Euro stablecoins (2025-10-07), MiCA stablecoin risk discussions (2025-10–11)