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What happened to HYPE, and why does it keep falling?
——A comprehensive breakdown from security events to the macro environment
First, let's look at the results: What exactly happened to HYPE?
If only focusing on the market, the feeling of this round of decline is indeed very painful.
The current price is fluctuating around the 30–35 USD range, showing a significant retracement from the 40+ in September and the peak in August-September.
A rough estimate shows that **in the last 30 / 60 / 90 days, approximately -26%, -36%, -42%** respectively, which is a standard 'high position continues to kill valuation' trend.
From the historical high point (around 59 USD), the overall retracement is currently about -45% to -50%.
In simple terms:
First, let's look at the results: What exactly happened to HYPE?
If only focusing on the market, the feeling of this round of decline is indeed very painful.
The current price is fluctuating around the 30–35 USD range, showing a significant retracement from the 40+ in September and the peak in August-September.
A rough estimate shows that **in the last 30 / 60 / 90 days, approximately -26%, -36%, -42%** respectively, which is a standard 'high position continues to kill valuation' trend.
From the historical high point (around 59 USD), the overall retracement is currently about -45% to -50%.
In simple terms:
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Which DEX is the strongest? A one-time guide to understanding the leading decentralized exchanges
——A comprehensive analysis from users, revenue to token value*
1. Why talk about DEX: the data has already provided the answer.
If we say that 2020–2021 was just a 'trial period' for DEX, then 2024–2025 is the stage where it truly establishes its presence:
CEX spot quarterly trading volume remains massive, but the share of DEX spot trading volume continues to rise, with the DEX/CEX ratio reaching a new high in this cycle.
The growth rate of perpetual contract perp DEX is even more exaggerated: it is not uncommon for monthly transactions to exceed one trillion USD and daily average transactions to approach one hundred billion USD.
At the same time, at the specific protocol level:
1. Why talk about DEX: the data has already provided the answer.
If we say that 2020–2021 was just a 'trial period' for DEX, then 2024–2025 is the stage where it truly establishes its presence:
CEX spot quarterly trading volume remains massive, but the share of DEX spot trading volume continues to rise, with the DEX/CEX ratio reaching a new high in this cycle.
The growth rate of perpetual contract perp DEX is even more exaggerated: it is not uncommon for monthly transactions to exceed one trillion USD and daily average transactions to approach one hundred billion USD.
At the same time, at the specific protocol level:
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BTC / ETH Today's Trend Analysis and Multi-Period Trading Plan (2025-12-05)
Statement: The following is a market interpretation and trading idea framework, which does not constitute any investment advice. Leverage and position size should strictly align with personal risk tolerance.
1. Overview of today's BTC / ETH trends
1. Price and 24h performance
BTC
Current price: Approximately $92,000–$93,000, fluctuating in this range.
24-hour fluctuation: Roughly between -0.5% ~ +1%.
Pattern: A sideways recovery phase after the sharp decline a few days ago.
ETH
Current price: Approximately $3,150–$3,200.
24-hour increase: Approximately 4–7%.
Pattern: Driven by the Fusaka upgrade + ETF capital inflow, significantly stronger than BTC.
1. Overview of today's BTC / ETH trends
1. Price and 24h performance
BTC
Current price: Approximately $92,000–$93,000, fluctuating in this range.
24-hour fluctuation: Roughly between -0.5% ~ +1%.
Pattern: A sideways recovery phase after the sharp decline a few days ago.
ETH
Current price: Approximately $3,150–$3,200.
24-hour increase: Approximately 4–7%.
Pattern: Driven by the Fusaka upgrade + ETF capital inflow, significantly stronger than BTC.
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SEC Halts 3–5 Times Leverage Cryptocurrency ETF: Regulatory Red Lines, Underlying Logic, and Impacts on the Crypto Space
1. What happened? — 'Super Leverage ETF' has hit the brakes hard
On December 3, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued nearly identical warning letters to multiple ETF issuers (including ProShares, Direxion, GraniteShares, etc.), suspending the review of a batch of new applications for highly leveraged ETF plans.
The commonality of these products is:
The goal is to provide 3 times or 5 times the daily return exposure;
The targets cover single technology stocks, industry indices, national indices, and cryptocurrency assets (including Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.);
Some issuers are attempting to circumvent existing leverage limits through the technical details of 'design reference portfolios.'
On December 3, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued nearly identical warning letters to multiple ETF issuers (including ProShares, Direxion, GraniteShares, etc.), suspending the review of a batch of new applications for highly leveraged ETF plans.
The commonality of these products is:
The goal is to provide 3 times or 5 times the daily return exposure;
The targets cover single technology stocks, industry indices, national indices, and cryptocurrency assets (including Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.);
Some issuers are attempting to circumvent existing leverage limits through the technical details of 'design reference portfolios.'
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Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade In-Depth Analysis
1. What is Fusaka? Its position on the timeline.
Fusaka is a major hard fork upgrade for Ethereum in 2025 (after Pectra).
Mainnet activation time: 2025-12-03 21:49:11 UTC, following multiple rounds of rehearsals on various testnets.
The name is derived from Fulu (the star name of the consensus layer) + Osaka (the city that hosted Devcon), indicating that this upgrade modifies both the consensus layer and the execution layer.
Official positioning: A security-first upgrade centered on 'data availability + scalability' that occurs after Dencun/EIP-4844 and before parallel execution (Glamsterdam).
Fusaka is a major hard fork upgrade for Ethereum in 2025 (after Pectra).
Mainnet activation time: 2025-12-03 21:49:11 UTC, following multiple rounds of rehearsals on various testnets.
The name is derived from Fulu (the star name of the consensus layer) + Osaka (the city that hosted Devcon), indicating that this upgrade modifies both the consensus layer and the execution layer.
Official positioning: A security-first upgrade centered on 'data availability + scalability' that occurs after Dencun/EIP-4844 and before parallel execution (Glamsterdam).
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Vanguard, the $10 trillion giant, finally compromises: opening cryptocurrency ETFs, what does it mean for the crypto space?
1. What exactly happened today?
On December 2, 2025, Beijing time, the world's second-largest asset management firm Vanguard announced:
Its U.S. brokerage platform will allow trading of third-party cryptocurrency-related ETFs and mutual funds, including products that mainly hold Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), etc.
How many key points are there:
Only third-party products (such as BlackRock's IBIT, etc.) are open for trading; they are not currently launching any cryptocurrency products themselves;
These cryptocurrency ETFs/funds are treated as "non-core assets" similar to gold, rather than the main focus of the portfolio;
On December 2, 2025, Beijing time, the world's second-largest asset management firm Vanguard announced:
Its U.S. brokerage platform will allow trading of third-party cryptocurrency-related ETFs and mutual funds, including products that mainly hold Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), etc.
How many key points are there:
Only third-party products (such as BlackRock's IBIT, etc.) are open for trading; they are not currently launching any cryptocurrency products themselves;
These cryptocurrency ETFs/funds are treated as "non-core assets" similar to gold, rather than the main focus of the portfolio;
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BTC / ETH Intraday Trend Deep Analysis and Trading Plan (2025-12-01)
Risk warning: The following content is only for personal learning and trading idea sharing, and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and caution is required when entering the market.
1. Market overview (Beijing time December 1 evening)
Core conclusion:
Today BTC / ETH are both 'high volatility weak rebound, bearish intraday structure', more suitable for 'short on rebounds + small position on oversold short-term longs', not suitable for reckless bottom fishing with full positions.
1. Current approximate price and volatility range (please refer to the actual data from the exchange used)
BTC
Current price: approximately 85,900 US dollars
Intraday range: 91,800 high → 84,900 low, intraday volatility close to 8%
1. Market overview (Beijing time December 1 evening)
Core conclusion:
Today BTC / ETH are both 'high volatility weak rebound, bearish intraday structure', more suitable for 'short on rebounds + small position on oversold short-term longs', not suitable for reckless bottom fishing with full positions.
1. Current approximate price and volatility range (please refer to the actual data from the exchange used)
BTC
Current price: approximately 85,900 US dollars
Intraday range: 91,800 high → 84,900 low, intraday volatility close to 8%
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A Comprehensive Guide to Understanding Polymarket: From 'Betting on Outcomes' to 'Buying Probabilities' in an Information Market
In the past two years, if you've been in the crypto circle, you should have heard a saying from time to time:
'Want to know the real probability of something happening? Go look at Polymarket.'
Who will win the 2024 U.S. election, whether the Israel-Gaza conflict will escalate, whether Bitcoin can reach a certain price by the end of the year... these real-world contentious issues can be bet on with real money on Polymarket, and the price itself becomes 'collective expectations.'
In 2025, Polymarket was further invested by the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE, with a maximum investment of $2 billion, a valuation of about $8 billion, daily active users reaching 70,000, and a 30-day transaction volume of approximately $3.7 billion, becoming the top application in the Polygon ecosystem.
'Want to know the real probability of something happening? Go look at Polymarket.'
Who will win the 2024 U.S. election, whether the Israel-Gaza conflict will escalate, whether Bitcoin can reach a certain price by the end of the year... these real-world contentious issues can be bet on with real money on Polymarket, and the price itself becomes 'collective expectations.'
In 2025, Polymarket was further invested by the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE, with a maximum investment of $2 billion, a valuation of about $8 billion, daily active users reaching 70,000, and a 30-day transaction volume of approximately $3.7 billion, becoming the top application in the Polygon ecosystem.
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Deep analysis of BTC recent trends: From 80,000 rebound to 90,000, has the trend reversed?
Update time: 2025-11-28
1. Core conclusion
From 80,000 to the current around 90,000, this wave is more like a strong rebound after a sharp decline / a continuation rebound, and cannot yet be considered a trend reversal of 'major bull and bear turning points.'
Short term: Long and short positions are now pulling around 90,000, more like a phase of 'switching from a unilateral sharp decline to an oscillating market.'
Medium term: There are two typical paths: continuing to oscillate in the large box range between 80,000 and 95,000, repeatedly reshuffling;
Or it may pull back to around 80,000 again in the future, and after clearing out the panic and leverage, there will be a chance to challenge 100,000+ again.
1. Core conclusion
From 80,000 to the current around 90,000, this wave is more like a strong rebound after a sharp decline / a continuation rebound, and cannot yet be considered a trend reversal of 'major bull and bear turning points.'
Short term: Long and short positions are now pulling around 90,000, more like a phase of 'switching from a unilateral sharp decline to an oscillating market.'
Medium term: There are two typical paths: continuing to oscillate in the large box range between 80,000 and 95,000, repeatedly reshuffling;
Or it may pull back to around 80,000 again in the future, and after clearing out the panic and leverage, there will be a chance to challenge 100,000+ again.
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2025.10.11 After the great crash of the century, have altcoins already met their end?
The vast majority of worthless small-cap altcoins are basically "truly dead"; this round of massive decline is just the declaration of the result. However, the "altcoin track" as a whole is not dead; it has simply entered an extremely brutal "Darwinian elimination period + long-term sideways period." In the future, only a few leading and essential tracks will slowly rebuild, while 90% of coins will forever lie in the graveyard.
The vast majority of worthless small-cap altcoins are basically "truly dead"; this round of massive decline is just the declaration of the result. However, the "altcoin track" as a whole is not dead; it has simply entered an extremely brutal "Darwinian elimination period + long-term sideways period." In the future, only a few leading and essential tracks will slowly rebuild, while 90% of coins will forever lie in the graveyard.
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AAVE: In-depth analysis of short, medium, and long-term trends in the leading DeFi platform
Aave was originally launched in 2017 under the name ETHLend and is a decentralized peer-to-peer lending platform.
However, the P2P matching efficiency was very low, making it difficult to form scaled liquidity. Therefore, the team underwent a brand upgrade from 2018 to 2019, officially renaming it Aave (meaning "ghost") and fully switching to a pool lending model. Original post can be found at: https://crypto100w.com/trade-square/post/52?share=1 #AAVE #Defi #熊市
Aave was originally launched in 2017 under the name ETHLend and is a decentralized peer-to-peer lending platform.
However, the P2P matching efficiency was very low, making it difficult to form scaled liquidity. Therefore, the team underwent a brand upgrade from 2018 to 2019, officially renaming it Aave (meaning "ghost") and fully switching to a pool lending model. Original post can be found at: https://crypto100w.com/trade-square/post/52?share=1 #AAVE #Defi #熊市
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SOL ETF has seen a net inflow for 19 consecutive days, should it surge?
Statistics since the ETF launch:
Net inflow for 19 consecutive trading days; total net inflow scale approximately 500 million USD; among which, leading products like Bitwise contributed the majority of the inflow; meanwhile, several BTC/ETH ETFs experienced net outflows during the same period.
This can be understood as:
Some institutions are reallocating from Bitcoin/Ethereum to high Beta mainstream public chains; these inflows are mostly inclined towards medium to long-term holdings and will not be as frequent as short-term capital movements; however, in absolute terms, 500 million USD relative to SOL's overall circulating market value is significant but far from being "decisive."
Conclusion: The 19 consecutive increases in the ETF indicate that someone is seriously and systematically accumulating SOL, which is a concrete positive signal for the medium to long-term, but it does not mean that the short-term price can only go up and not down. #SOL #ETF #熊市 #暴涨
Statistics since the ETF launch:
Net inflow for 19 consecutive trading days; total net inflow scale approximately 500 million USD; among which, leading products like Bitwise contributed the majority of the inflow; meanwhile, several BTC/ETH ETFs experienced net outflows during the same period.
This can be understood as:
Some institutions are reallocating from Bitcoin/Ethereum to high Beta mainstream public chains; these inflows are mostly inclined towards medium to long-term holdings and will not be as frequent as short-term capital movements; however, in absolute terms, 500 million USD relative to SOL's overall circulating market value is significant but far from being "decisive."
Conclusion: The 19 consecutive increases in the ETF indicate that someone is seriously and systematically accumulating SOL, which is a concrete positive signal for the medium to long-term, but it does not mean that the short-term price can only go up and not down. #SOL #ETF #熊市 #暴涨
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DOGE has fallen to 0.13, completely breaking down, where is the bottom?
The current price is roughly in the range of 0.13 to 0.15 USD (with slight variations across different exchanges). In September this year, driven by the ETF concept and overall bullish market sentiment, it once surged to the range of 0.25 to 0.30. During the epic flash crash on October 10-11, DOGE was instantly smashed from 0.22 to 0.25 down to 0.11, with some platforms even seeing the range of 0.08 to 0.09, with a single-day decline of as much as 50 to 66%. Based on the current price of around 0.14: relative to this round's local peak (approximately 0.30), it has retracted by 50 to 60%+; relative to the historical high of 0.73 in 2021, the overall retraction is about 80%, which is considered "normal bear market level" in the history of meme coins.
Conclusion: From a macro perspective, DOGE has completed a significant retraction, but it has not fully emerged from the downward trend structure since this round's local peak. #doge #狗狗币 #熊市
The current price is roughly in the range of 0.13 to 0.15 USD (with slight variations across different exchanges). In September this year, driven by the ETF concept and overall bullish market sentiment, it once surged to the range of 0.25 to 0.30. During the epic flash crash on October 10-11, DOGE was instantly smashed from 0.22 to 0.25 down to 0.11, with some platforms even seeing the range of 0.08 to 0.09, with a single-day decline of as much as 50 to 66%. Based on the current price of around 0.14: relative to this round's local peak (approximately 0.30), it has retracted by 50 to 60%+; relative to the historical high of 0.73 in 2021, the overall retraction is about 80%, which is considered "normal bear market level" in the history of meme coins.
Conclusion: From a macro perspective, DOGE has completed a significant retraction, but it has not fully emerged from the downward trend structure since this round's local peak. #doge #狗狗币 #熊市
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MVRV-Z indicator tells you the true bottom area of this bear market
Why look at MVRV-Z?
Recently, this round of sharp decline has slammed BTC from over 120,000 down to around 90,000, and panic sentiment has quickly escalated:
The Fear & Greed Index has long remained in 'Extreme Fear'; altcoins have generally been halved and halved again, with liquidity noticeably deteriorating; various voices claiming 'the bull market has ended' and 'the top of this round has already been seen' are rising one after another.
Many people will ask the same question: 'Where is this big bottom likely to be?'
Simply looking at technical patterns can easily be swayed by emotions, while the MVRV / MVRV-Z set of on-chain indicators happens to be one of the few tools that have accurately depicted the major cycles of BTC tops and bottoms multiple times in history. This article will revolve around this set of indicators to attempt to answer:
Where is the 'approximate area of the true bottom of the big pie' given by MVRV-Z in this round of bear market/major correction? #BTC #MVRV比率 #MVRV #抄底
Why look at MVRV-Z?
Recently, this round of sharp decline has slammed BTC from over 120,000 down to around 90,000, and panic sentiment has quickly escalated:
The Fear & Greed Index has long remained in 'Extreme Fear'; altcoins have generally been halved and halved again, with liquidity noticeably deteriorating; various voices claiming 'the bull market has ended' and 'the top of this round has already been seen' are rising one after another.
Many people will ask the same question: 'Where is this big bottom likely to be?'
Simply looking at technical patterns can easily be swayed by emotions, while the MVRV / MVRV-Z set of on-chain indicators happens to be one of the few tools that have accurately depicted the major cycles of BTC tops and bottoms multiple times in history. This article will revolve around this set of indicators to attempt to answer:
Where is the 'approximate area of the true bottom of the big pie' given by MVRV-Z in this round of bear market/major correction? #BTC #MVRV比率 #MVRV #抄底
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"Cryptocurrency Retail Investors' Survival Guide in Bear Markets"
This article helps you understand how to survive, endure longer, and maintain dignity in a bear market 🤔
This article helps you understand how to survive, endure longer, and maintain dignity in a bear market 🤔
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OKB fell below 100, BNB dropped to around 800: Is it time to buy the dip?
OKB: Falling below 100 is in the "discount zone after high volatility," but it's not a mindless buying zone.
From the 200+ high, it has halved down to around 100, and the cost-performance ratio is obviously much better than before. However, due to uncertainties like regulations and lawsuits, there is a high probability of continuing to fluctuate violently between 80–120 in the short term, and it cannot be ruled out that it might drop to 80 or even lower.
BNB: 800–900 is the "discount price for strong chains & leading platforms, but definitely not the floor."
From the high of 1200, it has retraced to just over 800, with a maximum drop of about 30%. Against the backdrop of Binance's regulatory implementation, CZ receiving clemency, and cooperation from multiple countries, it remains a "top performer" among platform tokens in the medium to long term. However, if BTC/ETH continues to drop sharply, it is also completely possible for BNB to fall to 600–700.
In summary: Both have reached the range of "considering building positions in batches," but it is not suitable for a one-time all-in, and it is certainly not the extreme panic bottom of "blindly picking up money."
OKB: Falling below 100 is in the "discount zone after high volatility," but it's not a mindless buying zone.
From the 200+ high, it has halved down to around 100, and the cost-performance ratio is obviously much better than before. However, due to uncertainties like regulations and lawsuits, there is a high probability of continuing to fluctuate violently between 80–120 in the short term, and it cannot be ruled out that it might drop to 80 or even lower.
BNB: 800–900 is the "discount price for strong chains & leading platforms, but definitely not the floor."
From the high of 1200, it has retraced to just over 800, with a maximum drop of about 30%. Against the backdrop of Binance's regulatory implementation, CZ receiving clemency, and cooperation from multiple countries, it remains a "top performer" among platform tokens in the medium to long term. However, if BTC/ETH continues to drop sharply, it is also completely possible for BNB to fall to 600–700.
In summary: Both have reached the range of "considering building positions in batches," but it is not suitable for a one-time all-in, and it is certainly not the extreme panic bottom of "blindly picking up money."
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BTC/ETH Current Trend and Bottom-Fishing Strategy Analysis (2025-11-20)
From a long-term perspective, we are indeed in a phase of "deep correction / small bear market" and the risks have not been fully released;
However, from a medium to short-term rhythm, this area has entered the "gradual accumulation zone" rather than a mindless panic selling zone.
Whether to "bottom-fish" is not about guessing the absolute bottom, but rather: what rhythm, what position size you use, and how much drawdown you can withstand. #BTC #ETH #熊市 #抄底
Original text: https://crypto100w.com/trade-square/post/46?share=1
From a long-term perspective, we are indeed in a phase of "deep correction / small bear market" and the risks have not been fully released;
However, from a medium to short-term rhythm, this area has entered the "gradual accumulation zone" rather than a mindless panic selling zone.
Whether to "bottom-fish" is not about guessing the absolute bottom, but rather: what rhythm, what position size you use, and how much drawdown you can withstand. #BTC #ETH #熊市 #抄底
Original text: https://crypto100w.com/trade-square/post/46?share=1
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mNAV broke below 1: What is happening with these 'coin stocks'?
mNAV breaking below 1 indicates that the market is no longer willing to pay a premium for the narrative of these 'coin stocks', and has even started to discount them.
In other words: a lot of funds would rather buy BTC / ETH or ETFs directly, and do not want to pay extra to buy 'shell version' coin stocks, and even believe that these companies themselves may 'drag behind'. #MSTR #BMNR #币股
mNAV breaking below 1 indicates that the market is no longer willing to pay a premium for the narrative of these 'coin stocks', and has even started to discount them.
In other words: a lot of funds would rather buy BTC / ETH or ETFs directly, and do not want to pay extra to buy 'shell version' coin stocks, and even believe that these companies themselves may 'drag behind'. #MSTR #BMNR #币股
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Stablecoins can be divided into three categories based on collateralization methods: fiat-collateralized (centralized), over-collateralized (decentralized), and algorithmic/partially collateralized.
Fiat-collateralized (centralized): Each stablecoin has a corresponding amount of fiat currency reserves as backing. Representative projects include Tether (USDT), USDC, etc., which are typically issued by enterprises and backed by reserves of currencies like the US dollar and Euro. For example, when there are 1,000,000 USDT in circulation, the issuing organization needs to hold reserves of 1 million US dollars.
Over-collateralized (decentralized): Collateralized by crypto assets, stablecoins are generated through over-collateralization via smart contracts. Representative projects include MakerDAO's DAI and Liquity's LUSD, among others. Users must deposit cryptocurrency worth more than the issued amount of stablecoins (usually 200% or higher) as collateral. These stablecoins operate completely transparently, managed by decentralized protocols, without the need to trust a single centralized entity.
Algorithmic/partially collateralized: These stablecoins automatically adjust token supply through smart contracts and algorithms to maintain their peg. Partially collateralized (fractional-algorithmic) stablecoins like Frax (FRAX) have some fiat or crypto collateral and also adjust collateralization ratios dynamically via algorithms; purely algorithmic models like the early TerraUSD (UST) rely entirely on other tokens within their system (like LUNA) for minting and redemption to stabilize. HAY, USDR, and others also fall under the broad category of algorithmic or derivative models.
Fiat-collateralized (centralized): Each stablecoin has a corresponding amount of fiat currency reserves as backing. Representative projects include Tether (USDT), USDC, etc., which are typically issued by enterprises and backed by reserves of currencies like the US dollar and Euro. For example, when there are 1,000,000 USDT in circulation, the issuing organization needs to hold reserves of 1 million US dollars.
Over-collateralized (decentralized): Collateralized by crypto assets, stablecoins are generated through over-collateralization via smart contracts. Representative projects include MakerDAO's DAI and Liquity's LUSD, among others. Users must deposit cryptocurrency worth more than the issued amount of stablecoins (usually 200% or higher) as collateral. These stablecoins operate completely transparently, managed by decentralized protocols, without the need to trust a single centralized entity.
Algorithmic/partially collateralized: These stablecoins automatically adjust token supply through smart contracts and algorithms to maintain their peg. Partially collateralized (fractional-algorithmic) stablecoins like Frax (FRAX) have some fiat or crypto collateral and also adjust collateralization ratios dynamically via algorithms; purely algorithmic models like the early TerraUSD (UST) rely entirely on other tokens within their system (like LUNA) for minting and redemption to stabilize. HAY, USDR, and others also fall under the broad category of algorithmic or derivative models.
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