šØĀ $XRP Ends 2025 Down 12% But a Massive Supply Shock Is Quietly Building
After a brutal Q4 sell-off,Ā XRP closed 2025 down 12%. Now, withĀ $1B worth of escrow XRP scheduled for releaseunder the usual mechanism, the market looks shaky at first glance.
But look closer this isnāt a supply glut story. Itās a supply squeeze.
š¹ The $1B Escrow āShockā Isnāt What It Seems
Yes,Ā $1B in XRP was unlocked, but history tells a different story:
TypicallyĀ only ~20% actually reaches the open market
The rest is re-locked or absorbed quietly
Meanwhile, something far more important is happeningā¦
šĀ Exchange reserves collapsed
Down fromĀ $3B to $2.6BĀ in 2025
InĀ Q4 alone, while price droppedĀ 36%, overĀ $300M worth of XRP left exchanges
šĀ Smart money is absorbing supply faster than XRP can be released.
šø Derivatives Are Leaning Hard Bullish
Futures data paints a clear picture:
Over 70% long biasĀ across derivatives markets
Traders are aggressively positioning for a rebound from theĀ $1.85 consolidation zone
Why the confidence?
ā
Regulatory clarity from the SEC
ā
The upcomingĀ CLARITY Act
ā
Growing belief this dip isĀ accumulation, not distribution
š„ A Classic Standoff Is Forming
Price is chopping sidewaysā¦
ButĀ circulating supply is shrinking fast.
When:
Supply drains from exchanges
Long positioning stacks up
Volatility compresses
šĀ An explosive move becomes inevitable.
š„Ā The Big Question
WithĀ $300M XRP exiting exchanges in Q4Ā and traders piling into longs:
š Are we front-running aĀ violent supply-shock rally?
š Or will the escrow releases flush out overleveraged longs one last time?
One thing is clear:
This balance wonāt hold for long. Volatility is coming.
