UPDATE ON SHUTDOWN RISKS IN THE USA
The probability of the U.S. government shutting down is significantly decreasing.
According to Kalshi markets, as of early January 2026, the chance of a shutdown on January 31 is estimated at only 29%, whereas a month ago it was in the range of 40โ48%.
Why the risk is falling:
โข ๐ Unified Republican control over key branches of power reduces the likelihood of a budget stalemate
โข ๐ค More room for compromises on funding
โข ๐ Markets are gradually pricing in a scenario without extreme political risks
Conclusion:
Political uncertainty remains, but the shutdown factor no longer appears to be a systemic threat to the markets. This reduces pressure on risk assets and removes one of the short-term negative triggers.