$BTC the same old story: we are now at the critical pressure zone for the second impact.

I have not changed my judgment from before—

this position allows for at most three effective breakout opportunities.

The first failure can be understood as a test;

the second failure indicates that there is real selling pressure above;

if the third time still cannot hold, then it is not 'oscillation', but rather a need to go down and reallocate funds.

Many brothers privately asked me one question:

If we consider the worst-case scenario, where will the bottom be for BTC in this round of correction?

I provided a range answer yesterday:

Around 8, it can basically be viewed as a short-term low.

But I didn't elaborate on the logic yesterday; today I will clarify the underlying reasons.

Why is the range 7.8–8?

In one sentence:

This is the average cost range for current miners.

Historically, BTC has indeed fallen below miners' costs,

but if you look at the data, you will find two commonalities:

The time below is extremely short

rarely exceeding 1–2 weeks.

The reason is not complicated.

Miners are not emotional players; they are 'cash flow players'.

The logic of miners is very simple:

Electricity costs are real money

Equipment depreciation happens daily

Hashrate = Cost

If prices stay below mining costs for a long time, the more they mine, the more they lose.

What happens then?

Some miners shut down

Hashrate declines

Network security costs rise

And the reason miners can still grit their teeth and persist is,

there is only one premise:

They believe the value of the network will ultimately cover short-term losses.

So—

Prices can briefly fall below miners' costs, but they cannot run long-term under the cost line.

This is not an emotional judgment; it is determined by economic structure.

Therefore, I have only three short-term conclusions about the current market:

1️⃣ This is the second test of the pressure zone; it is still a key point.

2️⃣ If it fails three times, we must accept the reality of needing to switch down to a lower range for accumulation.

3️⃣ The range of 7.8–8 is structurally a very strong defensive position for the short term.

As for the larger cycles and bull-bear transitions,

drawing conclusions now would be a bit like playing a seer.

Where the market goes, we will make judgments accordingly,

let's first finish watching this pressure test before discussing the subsequent story.

Short-term look at structure,

Medium-term look at cost,

Long-term look at value.