Bitcoin Price Outlook for 2026: Investment Wisdom Amid Cycle Waves

"A thousand sails pass by the side of a sunken boat, and ten thousand trees flourish before a sick one." The current Bitcoin market is at a bull-to-bear transition phase. After the 2024 halving, the block reward has dropped to 3.125 BTC. On-chain data shows that exchange balances continue to decline, and the proportion of long-term holders has risen to 78%, reflecting a "strong consensus bottoming out" characteristic.

From a technical perspective, the weekly RSI indicator has rebounded from the oversold zone, and the MACD red bars have shortened. If the 45,000 USD neckline is firmly held, a new primary uptrend may be triggered. Based on historical cycle projections, the Year of the Horse in 2026 may witness the third wave of the halving-driven rally. A breakthrough of $10 billion in institutional ETF holdings could serve as an acceleration signal.

Investors are advised to use the "pyramid accumulation strategy": gradually build up 30% of the position below $30,000, increase to 50% below $25,000, and set a stop-loss at $20,000. Remember "When you reach the end of the stream, sit and watch the clouds rise," avoiding chasing highs or panic selling. Focus on the dual drivers of Federal Reserve monetary policy shifts and blockchain technological innovation.