Old Lion's 1.8 Gold Evening Review: Go Long Below 4400
Old saying, trade with the trend, don't go against the market. Stick to this good habit, and Old Lion believes you're not far from success.
Afternoon, Old Lion already gave the idea: don't chase higher prices, instead verify support validity. The support at 4415 has been tested three times without breaking. We can start positioning longs, aiming for a high of 4440. A valid 25-point move is possible!
So how should we view each session tonight? First, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing will officially take effect. The market may face passive selling pressure of approximately $600 million in gold futures and $500 million in silver futures. Short-term volatility expectations are rising. It should be clear that this selling pressure is not actual net reduction; most positions will likely shift to forward contracts. Therefore, the impact is more focused on short-term liquidity.
Meanwhile, tonight's initial jobless claims data is the last major leading indicator before Friday's non-farm employment report. Its performance will directly guide the market in adjusting non-farm expectations.
From a technical perspective, gold price is currently in a key consolidation range of 4430–4420. The 4400 level serves as both yesterday's support and the previous lower boundary of the consolidation range. Whether this level holds will be the key indicator for short-term direction.
If initial jobless claims exceed expectations, confirming a weak labor market, gold price could gain support and rebound upward, aiming to challenge the key resistance at $4500 again. It should be emphasized that the market's reaction is driven not by the data itself, but by the deviation between actual and expected values. For example, if the market expects 200,000 claims and the actual figure comes in at 220,000, that constitutes a positive surprise. Overall, this data release is likely to break the current consolidation stalemate, triggering a short-term trend move.
Tonight, continue to watch support around 4410, monitor resistance near 4450, and pay attention to the short-term guidance from the initial jobless claims data. The main event remains tomorrow’s non-farm report.
Old Lion suggests going long near 4410–4415, with stop loss at 4400, target 4430/4440 above.
If a pullback reaches around 4447, consider shorting, with stop loss at 4456, target 4420 below $XAU
#黄金
Old saying, trade with the trend, don't go against the market. Stick to this good habit, and Old Lion believes you're not far from success.
Afternoon, Old Lion already gave the idea: don't chase higher prices, instead verify support validity. The support at 4415 has been tested three times without breaking. We can start positioning longs, aiming for a high of 4440. A valid 25-point move is possible!
So how should we view each session tonight? First, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing will officially take effect. The market may face passive selling pressure of approximately $600 million in gold futures and $500 million in silver futures. Short-term volatility expectations are rising. It should be clear that this selling pressure is not actual net reduction; most positions will likely shift to forward contracts. Therefore, the impact is more focused on short-term liquidity.
Meanwhile, tonight's initial jobless claims data is the last major leading indicator before Friday's non-farm employment report. Its performance will directly guide the market in adjusting non-farm expectations.
From a technical perspective, gold price is currently in a key consolidation range of 4430–4420. The 4400 level serves as both yesterday's support and the previous lower boundary of the consolidation range. Whether this level holds will be the key indicator for short-term direction.
If initial jobless claims exceed expectations, confirming a weak labor market, gold price could gain support and rebound upward, aiming to challenge the key resistance at $4500 again. It should be emphasized that the market's reaction is driven not by the data itself, but by the deviation between actual and expected values. For example, if the market expects 200,000 claims and the actual figure comes in at 220,000, that constitutes a positive surprise. Overall, this data release is likely to break the current consolidation stalemate, triggering a short-term trend move.
Tonight, continue to watch support around 4410, monitor resistance near 4450, and pay attention to the short-term guidance from the initial jobless claims data. The main event remains tomorrow’s non-farm report.
Old Lion suggests going long near 4410–4415, with stop loss at 4400, target 4430/4440 above.
If a pullback reaches around 4447, consider shorting, with stop loss at 4456, target 4420 below $XAU
#黄金