In-depth analysis

1. Grayscale ETF expects an advance (January 10, 2026)

Overview: Grayscale has filed an S-1 form with the SEC to convert its Bittensor Trust fund into a spot ETF (symbol: GTAO), aiming to list it on the NYSE Arca. This decision follows the planned halving of its daily TAO emissions in December 2025, reducing them to 3,600 tokens.

In short: this ETF could expand institutional access, similar to the significant increase in liquidity seen in the Bitcoin market due to ETFs. However, approval timelines remain uncertain, as the SEC is closely examining crypto products linked to AI. (source)

2. Investment Outlook 2026 (January 11, 2026)

Overview: Analysts have identified TAO as a key investment for 2026 due to its fixed supply of 21 million units (similar to Bitcoin) and its role in decentralizing AI model training. The anticipated TAO correction in 2025 (-70% from its all-time high) is seen as a buying opportunity for long-term investors.

In summary: scarcity and AI utility could drive demand, but competition from centralized AI giants like OpenAI poses risks to adoption. (source)

3. Resistance Test at $300 (January 10, 2026)

Overview: TAO surged 12% over the week to reach approximately $277, surpassing its 20-day exponential moving average. Analysts like Michael Van de Poppe note a bullish reversal pattern, with a target of $300 to $500 if the momentum continues. Key indicators (RSI > 50, OBV rising) support accumulation.

In plain terms: a close above $300 could trigger a FOMO (fear of missing out) surge, but a failure might cause a retest of the support level at $230. The 21-day moving average and the supply compression driven by the halving of rewards are favorable technical factors. (source)

Conclusion

Institutional interest, the narrative around scarcity, and Bittensor's technical dynamics make this a high-potential crypto investment in AI. If ETF approval and subnet adoption occur, TAO could rise to $500, though regulatory hurdles and liquidity risks for altcoins remain. Will the AI boom, comparable to Bitcoin's rise, coincide with a broader crypto market recovery?